Been going through a couple of sources to build my options knowledge over past couple months.
Was shown Dan Sheridan's Options videos on CBOE.
WOW.
Amazing series. Really helped make the greeks less fearful. Would be cool to take his program, but $6500 USD is University Tuition.
next step would be testing the water with various strategies.
Currently I want to test out Gamma Scalping with a Straddle. I see this as being perfect for FX as market moves very fast at certain times of the day. Still haven't seen how spreads will affect the idea, but will find out soon enough.
Now things I still need to check up on are:
-How to sell spot market to take profits
-Decide how to calculate volatility on cross traded (ATR?)
-Adjusting
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Friday, October 16, 2009
Week Ending Oct 17th 2009
So weekly PnL: 383 pips.
Weekly Running PnL: 503.
Still long 1/5th Cable position @ 1.6061, SL 1.6052 and half Dllryen position @ 90.21 SL 90.05.
Notes from the week:
I took trades based on speculation and not on the system at the beginning of the week instead of waiting for the trades to come to me. This can be seen as over trading and needs to be rectified. Unprofitable situations need to be monitored, but need to set alerts in place so that opportunities are hit when they arise. I basically fought the Euro uptrend all week, losing 45 pips across several trades. That shows that I knew I should not take the trade, but still took them anyways, thus seen as gambling and not trading. Also was long Dllryen early, system showed weak bullish, but was on a retrace, went long. Not sure what to think of the trade but it cost me another 20 pips.
Trades that stuck to the system made 643 pips this week. that means I had 140 pips lost due to not following the system, or getting in too late.
Next Weeks Goals:
-Focus on entry, if you miss entry look for next one.
-Follow the system, take trades based only on the system
-Stick to what I know.
-The technical system I know well. This is my edge. I am still grasping money flow.
-Further work on money flow.
Weekly Running PnL: 503.
Still long 1/5th Cable position @ 1.6061, SL 1.6052 and half Dllryen position @ 90.21 SL 90.05.
Notes from the week:
I took trades based on speculation and not on the system at the beginning of the week instead of waiting for the trades to come to me. This can be seen as over trading and needs to be rectified. Unprofitable situations need to be monitored, but need to set alerts in place so that opportunities are hit when they arise. I basically fought the Euro uptrend all week, losing 45 pips across several trades. That shows that I knew I should not take the trade, but still took them anyways, thus seen as gambling and not trading. Also was long Dllryen early, system showed weak bullish, but was on a retrace, went long. Not sure what to think of the trade but it cost me another 20 pips.
Trades that stuck to the system made 643 pips this week. that means I had 140 pips lost due to not following the system, or getting in too late.
Next Weeks Goals:
-Focus on entry, if you miss entry look for next one.
-Follow the system, take trades based only on the system
-Stick to what I know.
-The technical system I know well. This is my edge. I am still grasping money flow.
-Further work on money flow.
Monday, September 28, 2009
September
So I calculated my pip tally for the month.
2847 pips.
Now as most of those pips were reductions of an initial trade, I added a weight to them to get them as a pip profit of the original trade.
X1 = initial entry size
X2 = reduction size
S1= initial entry price
S2= reduction price
so
WeightPips = (X1-X2)*(S1-S2)
so my weighted pip tally became 475 pips (including losses)
2847 pips.
Now as most of those pips were reductions of an initial trade, I added a weight to them to get them as a pip profit of the original trade.
X1 = initial entry size
X2 = reduction size
S1= initial entry price
S2= reduction price
so
WeightPips = (X1-X2)*(S1-S2)
so my weighted pip tally became 475 pips (including losses)
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Short Cable
Took a daily short signal on cable, reduced +175, still 4 possible reductions left.
What a month. I have been a Trading machine!
edit: Cable fire sale!
reduced again +280 and +285. not bad for one day.
What a month. I have been a Trading machine!
edit: Cable fire sale!
reduced again +280 and +285. not bad for one day.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Updates
So I survived the first week of Calculus!
and as well I made some serious pips buying Yen, and CAD (~1100 pips to be exact).
Finding that when I stick to the rules, I make the money.
Working on MM strategy now.
Thinking No single trade over the size of the account managed.
ie.
$10 000 account @ 40:1, I trade $10 000 lots per trade, which is $250. I cover 7 pairs, so if I have a position in each that's 17.5% utilization of leverage.
If I have a 50 pip draw down per trade, and a 100 pip topside per trade thats:
(-$350) draw down a month or +$700 upside (-3.5% to +7%) which I consider a very good monthly return.
anywho, its a work in progress.
and as well I made some serious pips buying Yen, and CAD (~1100 pips to be exact).
Finding that when I stick to the rules, I make the money.
Working on MM strategy now.
Thinking No single trade over the size of the account managed.
ie.
$10 000 account @ 40:1, I trade $10 000 lots per trade, which is $250. I cover 7 pairs, so if I have a position in each that's 17.5% utilization of leverage.
If I have a 50 pip draw down per trade, and a 100 pip topside per trade thats:
(-$350) draw down a month or +$700 upside (-3.5% to +7%) which I consider a very good monthly return.
anywho, its a work in progress.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Options
Been working through Hulls book this past week...
starting to get good grasp of options, but haven't hit the greeks yet lol
still working on properties of options.
Finding Options arbitrage the most interesting of all the arbitrage situations to date, as you are basically creating arbitrage on your lower bound and keeping the upper bound to much more potential (creating a synthetic call option).
starting to get good grasp of options, but haven't hit the greeks yet lol
still working on properties of options.
Finding Options arbitrage the most interesting of all the arbitrage situations to date, as you are basically creating arbitrage on your lower bound and keeping the upper bound to much more potential (creating a synthetic call option).
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
The end of an Era
was reading an article somewhere today (Don't remember where) and it was about how the realization of the past two years is that we as an economy are spending way beyond our means. If you make 3$ an hour as a waiter in the states, you should not own a house. If you are making 50k a year, but have 200k in student debt...you should not own a house.
People need to focus on becoming free of debts and be financially free.
I bring this down to one thing. And that is laziness. People are too lazy to work 2 jobs while in school to pay bills. They are focused on partying, living the good life. Even myself, work having slowed down immensely, have begun to look for a second job for school. Even considering taking an overnight job.
University, although looks great on a resume does not teach you how to become a trader. We are speculators. That is it in its most raw form. You learn by testing theories, losing money to the market. And if your good enough you get your ass back into the game as fast as you possibly can.
Has college and university become a privilege now? Does this mean that the return of the days of Jesse Livermore, and Rollo Tape of finance are finally coming back into being? With less money to go around in the world via. wages, job cuts, layoffs, etc. Where will the money go to? Will you really spend 50k on school after working for 2-3 years to accumulate the money? or will you use that money to buy a home, and work the blue collar?
Going back to school has been on my mind for the past month. I have spent almost $4000 and I have not even bought my books yet. How will I pay rent while going to school? OSAP? Considering just taking my investment licenses and raising capital to start a track record. MY fear is that if it fails, I do not have a fallback plan. Solution could be to take part time school, but still leaves a large economic opportunity cost to myself.
Decisions, Decisions.
People need to focus on becoming free of debts and be financially free.
I bring this down to one thing. And that is laziness. People are too lazy to work 2 jobs while in school to pay bills. They are focused on partying, living the good life. Even myself, work having slowed down immensely, have begun to look for a second job for school. Even considering taking an overnight job.
University, although looks great on a resume does not teach you how to become a trader. We are speculators. That is it in its most raw form. You learn by testing theories, losing money to the market. And if your good enough you get your ass back into the game as fast as you possibly can.
Has college and university become a privilege now? Does this mean that the return of the days of Jesse Livermore, and Rollo Tape of finance are finally coming back into being? With less money to go around in the world via. wages, job cuts, layoffs, etc. Where will the money go to? Will you really spend 50k on school after working for 2-3 years to accumulate the money? or will you use that money to buy a home, and work the blue collar?
Going back to school has been on my mind for the past month. I have spent almost $4000 and I have not even bought my books yet. How will I pay rent while going to school? OSAP? Considering just taking my investment licenses and raising capital to start a track record. MY fear is that if it fails, I do not have a fallback plan. Solution could be to take part time school, but still leaves a large economic opportunity cost to myself.
Decisions, Decisions.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Hunger.
I am Hungry.
Not for food, but for Capital.
Trading is becoming my catch-22. I NEED to start trading again. Demo account is doing well, but I cannot trade with only a $1000 dollar account (and I dare not use the LoC for trading). I'd need to pull in at LEAST 3-6% a day minimum to B.E at the end of the month. The more capital I have the more self sustaining I become.
Trading even 50k is enough to pay bills, after 20% commission. Average position on 50k would be about 2.5 lots, so $25 a pip. I Know that my daily B.E is 30-60$. that means that I need to make at least 5 pips to break even daily.
Not for food, but for Capital.
Trading is becoming my catch-22. I NEED to start trading again. Demo account is doing well, but I cannot trade with only a $1000 dollar account (and I dare not use the LoC for trading). I'd need to pull in at LEAST 3-6% a day minimum to B.E at the end of the month. The more capital I have the more self sustaining I become.
Trading even 50k is enough to pay bills, after 20% commission. Average position on 50k would be about 2.5 lots, so $25 a pip. I Know that my daily B.E is 30-60$. that means that I need to make at least 5 pips to break even daily.
Friday, July 31, 2009
recovered most of what I lost using smaller positions and scaling in.
[1:47:18 AM] Patrick May says: thinking long dllryen soon, but not yet
[1:52:30 AM] Patrick May says: tiny long dllryen 95.337
[2:00:45 AM] Patrick May says: tiny euro short 1.41270
[2:02:21 AM] Patrick May says: took -6.3 on dllryen...not logicall...took eyen s 134.577
[2:09:21 AM] Patrick May says: euro looks short longer TF, might leave it overnight...but others look confused
[2:18:54 AM] Patrick May says: added @ 1.41398, 134.683
[2:24:49 AM] Patrick May says: hmmm...understood that they are selling the dollar, but this dllryen weakness hasn't hurt eyen much...
[2:38:05 AM] Patrick May says: would reduce some here but I know that It is too soon, so testing myself and holding out for now
[2:39:02 AM] Patrick May says: not being greedy, trying to work on exits
[2:39:21 AM] Patrick May says: I usually get out too early and miss the run...like my terrible dllryen trade the other day.
[2:39:34 AM] Patrick May says: I am going to test it now, I know I am right, Now how far can it go
[2:39:55 AM] Patrick May says: i have the strategy, need to work on mentality...
[2:41:30 AM] Patrick May says: my entries are fine. my confidence needs to grow. and I need to believe in my positions
[3:01:28 AM] Patrick May says: reduced euro +23.3
[3:01:42 AM] Patrick May says: eyen +23.7
[3:02:27 AM] Patrick May says: again euro +25.x
[3:02:37 AM] Patrick May says: eyen +28.5
[3:03:02 AM] Patrick May says: 10326.02 now
[3:13:19 AM] Patrick May says: partial eyen +9.9
[3:13:32 AM] Patrick May says: +11 partial euro
[3:19:58 AM] Patrick May says: flat eyen +6.8
[3:21:06 AM] Patrick May says: going to keep euro on...market draging dllryen up, euro could still go further south
[3:22:23 AM] Patrick May says: reduced +20.8
[3:22:55 AM] Patrick May says: .1 lot left, sl set at B.e
[3:23:16 AM] Patrick May says: actually 1.4125
[1:52:30 AM] Patrick May says: tiny long dllryen 95.337
[2:00:45 AM] Patrick May says: tiny euro short 1.41270
[2:02:21 AM] Patrick May says: took -6.3 on dllryen...not logicall...took eyen s 134.577
[2:09:21 AM] Patrick May says: euro looks short longer TF, might leave it overnight...but others look confused
[2:18:54 AM] Patrick May says: added @ 1.41398, 134.683
[2:24:49 AM] Patrick May says: hmmm...understood that they are selling the dollar, but this dllryen weakness hasn't hurt eyen much...
[2:38:05 AM] Patrick May says: would reduce some here but I know that It is too soon, so testing myself and holding out for now
[2:39:02 AM] Patrick May says: not being greedy, trying to work on exits
[2:39:21 AM] Patrick May says: I usually get out too early and miss the run...like my terrible dllryen trade the other day.
[2:39:34 AM] Patrick May says: I am going to test it now, I know I am right, Now how far can it go
[2:39:55 AM] Patrick May says: i have the strategy, need to work on mentality...
[2:41:30 AM] Patrick May says: my entries are fine. my confidence needs to grow. and I need to believe in my positions
[3:01:28 AM] Patrick May says: reduced euro +23.3
[3:01:42 AM] Patrick May says: eyen +23.7
[3:02:27 AM] Patrick May says: again euro +25.x
[3:02:37 AM] Patrick May says: eyen +28.5
[3:03:02 AM] Patrick May says: 10326.02 now
[3:13:19 AM] Patrick May says: partial eyen +9.9
[3:13:32 AM] Patrick May says: +11 partial euro
[3:19:58 AM] Patrick May says: flat eyen +6.8
[3:21:06 AM] Patrick May says: going to keep euro on...market draging dllryen up, euro could still go further south
[3:22:23 AM] Patrick May says: reduced +20.8
[3:22:55 AM] Patrick May says: .1 lot left, sl set at B.e
[3:23:16 AM] Patrick May says: actually 1.4125
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Why/how I erased my profits from yesterday.
[2:45:45 AM] Patrick May says: long dllryen @ 94.226
[2:46:26 AM] Patrick May says: for now....we shall see how this goes
[2:47:37 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[2:49:57 AM] Patrick May says: there are people buying, but might be too soon
[2:50:24 AM] Patrick May says: watch the price...dips down like 4-5 pips then spikes up
[2:51:03 AM] Patrick May says: hedged with a euro short 1.41410
[2:52:48 AM] Patrick May says: one of us is goning to get smoked soon Z
[2:52:49 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[2:53:51 AM] Patrick May says: well if it opens positive, your dllryen will me hit, and negative, my short will be destroyed
[2:57:23 AM] Patrick May says: :@ dllryen
[2:57:27 AM] Patrick May says: dax is down isnt it?
[2:58:03 AM] Patrick May says: lol just wait! :P
[2:58:26 AM] Patrick May says: fuck it
[2:58:32 AM] Patrick May says: -17
[2:59:33 AM] Patrick May says: this is illogical...euro drops when dllryen drops, or at least im preportion
[2:59:45 AM] Z man says: look at eur/yen
[2:59:55 AM] Patrick May says: yes, and I am considering long on it lol
[3:00:44 AM] Patrick May says: i am getting slammed on euro short too...grrrrr
[3:00:59 AM] Patrick May says: -17 on that too
[3:01:00 AM] Patrick May says: damn
[3:01:28 AM] Patrick May says: should have gone to bed :P
[3:01:38 AM] Z man says: whats your balance ?
[3:01:58 AM] Patrick May says: 300 less
[3:01:59 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[3:08:39 AM] Patrick May says: 10 more pips and i am back to what i just lost
[3:08:55 AM] Patrick May says: 94.30 and i will exit all positions
[3:09:00 AM] Patrick May says: i still have long dllryen
[3:09:13 AM] Patrick May says: 2 lots @ 94.147 roughly
[3:09:28 AM] Patrick May says: now that i said that its going to get creamed
[3:11:09 AM] Patrick May says: no, but I know I am right and that I can make it back before I sleep
[3:15:09 AM] Patrick May says: good
[3:15:21 AM] Patrick May says: nikkei had a negative start as well, but went well till mid day
[3:16:25 AM] Patrick May says: give me 7 pips
[3:19:28 AM] Patrick May says: impatient
[3:19:30 AM] Patrick May says: :P
[3:19:44 AM] Patrick May says: need euro over 685
[3:23:32 AM] Patrick May says: see if dllryen was weak, then euro would not have stalled, but moved with it
[3:24:46 AM] Patrick May says: might have to get ready to throw a line at euro short lol...refraction is a b.
[3:27:07 AM] Patrick May says: see euro going to shoot dllryen up here
I had already been up roughly 120 pips before this incident. I knew I was right, took too large of position at once too early and didnt get to average out. Greed. Needs to be worked out of me.
[2:46:26 AM] Patrick May says: for now....we shall see how this goes
[2:47:37 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[2:49:57 AM] Patrick May says: there are people buying, but might be too soon
[2:50:24 AM] Patrick May says: watch the price...dips down like 4-5 pips then spikes up
[2:51:03 AM] Patrick May says: hedged with a euro short 1.41410
[2:52:48 AM] Patrick May says: one of us is goning to get smoked soon Z
[2:52:49 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[2:53:51 AM] Patrick May says: well if it opens positive, your dllryen will me hit, and negative, my short will be destroyed
[2:57:23 AM] Patrick May says: :@ dllryen
[2:57:27 AM] Patrick May says: dax is down isnt it?
[2:58:03 AM] Patrick May says: lol just wait! :P
[2:58:26 AM] Patrick May says: fuck it
[2:58:32 AM] Patrick May says: -17
[2:59:33 AM] Patrick May says: this is illogical...euro drops when dllryen drops, or at least im preportion
[2:59:45 AM] Z man says: look at eur/yen
[2:59:55 AM] Patrick May says: yes, and I am considering long on it lol
[3:00:44 AM] Patrick May says: i am getting slammed on euro short too...grrrrr
[3:00:59 AM] Patrick May says: -17 on that too
[3:01:00 AM] Patrick May says: damn
[3:01:28 AM] Patrick May says: should have gone to bed :P
[3:01:38 AM] Z man says: whats your balance ?
[3:01:58 AM] Patrick May says: 300 less
[3:01:59 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[3:08:39 AM] Patrick May says: 10 more pips and i am back to what i just lost
[3:08:55 AM] Patrick May says: 94.30 and i will exit all positions
[3:09:00 AM] Patrick May says: i still have long dllryen
[3:09:13 AM] Patrick May says: 2 lots @ 94.147 roughly
[3:09:28 AM] Patrick May says: now that i said that its going to get creamed
[3:11:09 AM] Patrick May says: no, but I know I am right and that I can make it back before I sleep
[3:15:09 AM] Patrick May says: good
[3:15:21 AM] Patrick May says: nikkei had a negative start as well, but went well till mid day
[3:16:25 AM] Patrick May says: give me 7 pips
[3:19:28 AM] Patrick May says: impatient
[3:19:30 AM] Patrick May says: :P
[3:19:44 AM] Patrick May says: need euro over 685
[3:23:32 AM] Patrick May says: see if dllryen was weak, then euro would not have stalled, but moved with it
[3:24:46 AM] Patrick May says: might have to get ready to throw a line at euro short lol...refraction is a b.
[3:27:07 AM] Patrick May says: see euro going to shoot dllryen up here
I had already been up roughly 120 pips before this incident. I knew I was right, took too large of position at once too early and didnt get to average out. Greed. Needs to be worked out of me.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
[11:19:52 AM] Patrick May says: s euro @ 1.42243
[11:20:23 AM] Patrick May says: s dllryen 93.734
[11:23:37 AM] Patrick May says: and s eyen @ 133.324
[11:25:39 AM] Patrick May says: took +11.2 on eyen
[11:27:13 AM] Patrick May says: +6.5 on euro
[11:30:15 AM] Patrick May says: i know i got out early, but as I am taking small positions I cannot scale them....as dow is at critical level imo, took profits when i had them, holding dllryen to see if dow continues to drop now
[11:34:12 AM] Patrick May says: flat -7.1
so profits:
S Eyen: 11.2
S Euro: 6.5
S dllryen: -7.1
total: 10.6
daily profits: 80.3. 100.75% above daily target.
[11:20:23 AM] Patrick May says: s dllryen 93.734
[11:23:37 AM] Patrick May says: and s eyen @ 133.324
[11:25:39 AM] Patrick May says: took +11.2 on eyen
[11:27:13 AM] Patrick May says: +6.5 on euro
[11:30:15 AM] Patrick May says: i know i got out early, but as I am taking small positions I cannot scale them....as dow is at critical level imo, took profits when i had them, holding dllryen to see if dow continues to drop now
[11:34:12 AM] Patrick May says: flat -7.1
so profits:
S Eyen: 11.2
S Euro: 6.5
S dllryen: -7.1
total: 10.6
daily profits: 80.3. 100.75% above daily target.
July 22nd, euro session...i hate mornings...
[3:01:48 AM] Patrick May says: s euro 1.41964
[3:02:41 AM] Patrick May says: took +7.3 on dllryen
[3:06:15 AM] Patrick May says: s dllryen 93.701, eyen 132.962
[3:08:00 AM] Patrick May says: watch dllryen will start to fade, euro will retrace a bit, then we will drop like a rock
[3:13:39 AM] Patrick May says: 1.4150 area would be nice
[3:14:04 AM] Patrick May says: dllryen is the one stalling the show
[3:16:34 AM] Patrick May says: would reduce euro here @ 1.4179-80 area...but too small position on mt4 account
[3:25:14 AM] Patrick May says: flat eyen @ 649 +31.x
[3:25:51 AM] Patrick May says: flat euro 1.41741 +22 i believe
[3:26:10 AM] Patrick May says: +9.3 dllryen
[3:26:17 AM] Patrick May says: @ 93.611
so I was:
Long dllryen: +7.3
Short Dllryen: +9.0
Short Eyen: +31.1
Short Euro: +22.3
Total nights gain: 69.7 pips
beat my target by 74% tonight.
[3:02:41 AM] Patrick May says: took +7.3 on dllryen
[3:06:15 AM] Patrick May says: s dllryen 93.701, eyen 132.962
[3:08:00 AM] Patrick May says: watch dllryen will start to fade, euro will retrace a bit, then we will drop like a rock
[3:13:39 AM] Patrick May says: 1.4150 area would be nice
[3:14:04 AM] Patrick May says: dllryen is the one stalling the show
[3:16:34 AM] Patrick May says: would reduce euro here @ 1.4179-80 area...but too small position on mt4 account
[3:25:14 AM] Patrick May says: flat eyen @ 649 +31.x
[3:25:51 AM] Patrick May says: flat euro 1.41741 +22 i believe
[3:26:10 AM] Patrick May says: +9.3 dllryen
[3:26:17 AM] Patrick May says: @ 93.611
so I was:
Long dllryen: +7.3
Short Dllryen: +9.0
Short Eyen: +31.1
Short Euro: +22.3
Total nights gain: 69.7 pips
beat my target by 74% tonight.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
[2:42:28 AM] Patrick May says: logic saying that dllryen should also begin to create nHigh as equities rise
[2:42:54 AM] Patrick May says: but...if its slowing could also mean that its fake move OR that dllryen hasnt caught up yet
Now what I am looking for is a strong euro session, this SHOULD create a stronger dllryen.
problems:
Euro very over-extended. This could cause dllryen to drop significantly more as yen begins to be bought.
took dllryen long 93.648
[2:42:54 AM] Patrick May says: but...if its slowing could also mean that its fake move OR that dllryen hasnt caught up yet
Now what I am looking for is a strong euro session, this SHOULD create a stronger dllryen.
problems:
Euro very over-extended. This could cause dllryen to drop significantly more as yen begins to be bought.
took dllryen long 93.648
Friday, July 17, 2009
[2:48:41 PM] Patrick May says: might be interesting time to sell dllryen...people taking profits before weekend
usually prices trend towards the close as people take profits.
Dllryen was about 94.30 when I wrote that, it is now slowly dropping 94.2x area. Dow also looks to be preparing to sell off 8732 area.
usually prices trend towards the close as people take profits.
Dllryen was about 94.30 when I wrote that, it is now slowly dropping 94.2x area. Dow also looks to be preparing to sell off 8732 area.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Trades
[7/13/2009 10:57:44 PM] Patrick May says: long euro on a theory
[7/13/2009 10:57:55 PM] Patrick May says: nikkei is strong, dllryen reversing, could see euro run up now
[7/13/2009 11:15:05 PM] Patrick May says: now what is more interesting is going to be nikkei post lunch, if we gap up, we will see euro run, and yen sell off...
[12:11:18 AM] Patrick May says: need to see nikkei higher for euro to breakout
[12:44:10 AM] Patrick May says: flat +16.8 @@ 1.39805
[1:00:45 AM] Patrick May says: nikkei was retracing, and although yen is down, I dont euro will run up for a couple hours.
I am starting to post my trade ideology as I go because I need to see the errors in my thought process. This will help me improve my position taking and allow me to correct wrongful thinking.
[7/13/2009 10:57:55 PM] Patrick May says: nikkei is strong, dllryen reversing, could see euro run up now
[7/13/2009 11:15:05 PM] Patrick May says: now what is more interesting is going to be nikkei post lunch, if we gap up, we will see euro run, and yen sell off...
[12:11:18 AM] Patrick May says: need to see nikkei higher for euro to breakout
[12:44:10 AM] Patrick May says: flat +16.8 @@ 1.39805
[1:00:45 AM] Patrick May says: nikkei was retracing, and although yen is down, I dont euro will run up for a couple hours.
I am starting to post my trade ideology as I go because I need to see the errors in my thought process. This will help me improve my position taking and allow me to correct wrongful thinking.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Money Flow Theory
Theory:
Pairs Traded:
Euro
Eyen
Dllryen
Situation:
Euro 4h is Overextended to the downside, and 30m is consolidated but near upper key level.
Action:
As you want to buy Euro and sell Usd, you begin to check what pairs are doing what. You start with Dllryen. If the Usd is losing strength, then Dllryen will initially drop based on Euro going higher (selling of USD). Note the lower key level of Dllryen as if it breaks it will trigger a drop in Euro. Also the Lower key level is a good place to set a bid order.
You next look at Eyen to see whether or not Euro is infulencing the Yen selloff. As Eyen is getting dragged higher by Euro, Dllryen will follow as the Yen begins to selloff. Hence why it is a good idea to place a bid by lower key Dllryen level. Note upper and lower key levels of Eyen as it can spark Yen to drag down Dllryen and Euro, giving the Usd strength.
Pairs Traded:
Euro
Eyen
Dllryen
Situation:
Euro 4h is Overextended to the downside, and 30m is consolidated but near upper key level.
Action:
As you want to buy Euro and sell Usd, you begin to check what pairs are doing what. You start with Dllryen. If the Usd is losing strength, then Dllryen will initially drop based on Euro going higher (selling of USD). Note the lower key level of Dllryen as if it breaks it will trigger a drop in Euro. Also the Lower key level is a good place to set a bid order.
You next look at Eyen to see whether or not Euro is infulencing the Yen selloff. As Eyen is getting dragged higher by Euro, Dllryen will follow as the Yen begins to selloff. Hence why it is a good idea to place a bid by lower key Dllryen level. Note upper and lower key levels of Eyen as it can spark Yen to drag down Dllryen and Euro, giving the Usd strength.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Trading Plan
Been working at putting my trading strategy onto paper for the past week, this is what has been done so far.
The Basis of my trading strategy is trading the equilibrium point of price waves (Fractals). Fractals are created within a trend as investors and traders take profits (or losses) which causes the price to trend in waves. As the main goal for any trader is to cut risk and create consistent profits with minimal losses I ignore trying to catch the beginning of a trend. The beginning of a trend although more profitable when you are right is very risky. This is why I wait until the first fractal has been made before entering a trade. this ensures that I am with the market sentiment and not against it. To further help this, I took notes from a Long time trader.
"When Price advances, think sell, this will stop you from buying at the top. You won't enter a short either because that would void the bias. Enter the market long at the bottom of a replacement."
So we have gone over 2 big parts of trading so far. A: Trends occur when market sentiment changes, and B: As buyers and sellers create transactions, it causes waves in price action.
Now As markets are never truly the same day after day, it is important to have a strategy that is quickly adjustable to the current market situation. I personally feel that this ideology keeps your mind focused on what is actually happening and filtering all of the noise out.
Next post will be on Fundamental screening and planning the day ahead.
The Basis of my trading strategy is trading the equilibrium point of price waves (Fractals). Fractals are created within a trend as investors and traders take profits (or losses) which causes the price to trend in waves. As the main goal for any trader is to cut risk and create consistent profits with minimal losses I ignore trying to catch the beginning of a trend. The beginning of a trend although more profitable when you are right is very risky. This is why I wait until the first fractal has been made before entering a trade. this ensures that I am with the market sentiment and not against it. To further help this, I took notes from a Long time trader.
"When Price advances, think sell, this will stop you from buying at the top. You won't enter a short either because that would void the bias. Enter the market long at the bottom of a replacement."
So we have gone over 2 big parts of trading so far. A: Trends occur when market sentiment changes, and B: As buyers and sellers create transactions, it causes waves in price action.
Now As markets are never truly the same day after day, it is important to have a strategy that is quickly adjustable to the current market situation. I personally feel that this ideology keeps your mind focused on what is actually happening and filtering all of the noise out.
Next post will be on Fundamental screening and planning the day ahead.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Euro
So took a short position, looking for 1.3740 area...
S @ 1.39803
S @ 1.39852
edit: added @ 1.39721...market trying to go against me, might close out if HH is made.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
cable
pulled short on 30m based on 4h chart...I feel that Ichimoku needs to have a correction, and I acted on it.
s @ 1.54855
s @ 1.54743
s @ 1.54855
s @ 1.54743
Markets
Somehow seems that a Jokers run is turning into an actual bull run. Daily S&P was a beautiful long opportunity (I took SSO long instead as etf seemed like a better play). Oil still running up, which is good, but currencies I stand mixed on. On one hand you have the fundamental plays, which is buy Euro/cable/CAD and forget about it, and on the other you have technicals which are telling me to buy usd, which have made me unprofitable this week. Would have been quite a profitable week last week if I would have kicked the scalp mindframe. Need to work on this.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Updates
Ok so I have officially decided that my trading strategy is drilled enough into my head that I am ready to go live.
Time to set some goals.
1. Obviously as I don't have capital required to go live as of now, priority is on raising capital.
2. As goal 1 is going to take time, I need to begin to look into brokers. Most important is going to be liquidity, as some of my trades are scalps, I need to be fluid in and out of the market, so aiming at larger broker would be more to my advantage. Also, larger broker means better spreads. So far I am considering MBtrading, and Hotspot FX.
3. Begin work on Risk management strategy (really want to work on modeling volatility to do position sizing, possibly work VaR into the equation?)
4. Create trade tracking sheet.
5. Look into designations, if more capital is needed, so are licenses to take-on said capital.
6. Bananas. Just felt like typing.
7. Keep truckin' away on the business plan.
Time to set some goals.
1. Obviously as I don't have capital required to go live as of now, priority is on raising capital.
2. As goal 1 is going to take time, I need to begin to look into brokers. Most important is going to be liquidity, as some of my trades are scalps, I need to be fluid in and out of the market, so aiming at larger broker would be more to my advantage. Also, larger broker means better spreads. So far I am considering MBtrading, and Hotspot FX.
3. Begin work on Risk management strategy (really want to work on modeling volatility to do position sizing, possibly work VaR into the equation?)
4. Create trade tracking sheet.
5. Look into designations, if more capital is needed, so are licenses to take-on said capital.
6. Bananas. Just felt like typing.
7. Keep truckin' away on the business plan.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Euro, Oil and why I expect a positive NFP
OK soooooo
EU cut rates by 25 bp dismorning. Ok that didn't do much as Euro is still in a downtrend because people are awaiting the NFP tomorow. This leads me to thinking that we shall see a higher NFP number, possibly 10-20 000 if its positive, or close to 0 if its negative.
Trichet pretty much said that Euro is cutting because they dont need to fight inflation right now, they need to focus on expansion and job creation. I think this is somewhat funny as Oil broke out this week, sitting around 57 right now. Resistance levels are around 65-70, and then 90-110. I believe that it will begin a new bull run because the CAD is also gaining ground on the USD.
Tomorow could spark a nice bullrun, despite the "sell in May and walk away" attitude.
EU cut rates by 25 bp dismorning. Ok that didn't do much as Euro is still in a downtrend because people are awaiting the NFP tomorow. This leads me to thinking that we shall see a higher NFP number, possibly 10-20 000 if its positive, or close to 0 if its negative.
Trichet pretty much said that Euro is cutting because they dont need to fight inflation right now, they need to focus on expansion and job creation. I think this is somewhat funny as Oil broke out this week, sitting around 57 right now. Resistance levels are around 65-70, and then 90-110. I believe that it will begin a new bull run because the CAD is also gaining ground on the USD.
Tomorow could spark a nice bullrun, despite the "sell in May and walk away" attitude.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Euro epic Fail.
Ok so I have been thinking up on risk management and position building to try and get myself out of scalping. I began adding positions as I felt the price will begin dropping soon, as illistrated in the posted picture, I added 3 positions, S@1.33157, S@1.33244, S@1.33316. all closed @ 1.333x area. Angers me how I was thinking scalp mentality so I closed and did not let my instinct fulfill itself.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Business plan
starting to pick up the pace.
I have pricing for Bloomberg, and some office space. The physical startup cost is going to be the easy part. The strategy is what is holding me back. I know that I can do FX spot. I do not wish to do it though, as it is too risky. Idea behind the fund is absolute returns, which means I need to start researching low risk strategies.
I have pricing for Bloomberg, and some office space. The physical startup cost is going to be the easy part. The strategy is what is holding me back. I know that I can do FX spot. I do not wish to do it though, as it is too risky. Idea behind the fund is absolute returns, which means I need to start researching low risk strategies.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Business Plan
Starting to find some useful information finally!!!
Creating a to-do list of sorts:
-Research Risk Management strategies
I have a strategy that makes sense to me, but needs to be able to know when to reduce risk when market is very Volatile. Considering getting my FRM from CSI.ca.
After all, Trading is only half the battle.
edit: Found this CHA (Chartered Hedgefund Associate) designation...might be helpful.
Creating a to-do list of sorts:
-Research Risk Management strategies
I have a strategy that makes sense to me, but needs to be able to know when to reduce risk when market is very Volatile. Considering getting my FRM from CSI.ca.
After all, Trading is only half the battle.
edit: Found this CHA (Chartered Hedgefund Associate) designation...might be helpful.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Business plans
soooo started the long process of creating a business plan for my managed firm.
Figured starting with prices would be best.
Figured starting with prices would be best.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Euro
Sooooo kick in the teeth that I was stopped out +38.4 pips instead of the original target of 1.3150...
But I still think that it was a great trade.
But I still think that it was a great trade.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Euro
Still a bloody mess, but profitable.
Taken a couple scalp trades ontop of my planned positional trade.
Moved SL to 1.29700, locking in 38.4 pips.
justified as if I am stopped out we are creating a lower low which would cause me to have a short bias.
still, 38.4 pips isn't that bad.
Taken a couple scalp trades ontop of my planned positional trade.
Moved SL to 1.29700, locking in 38.4 pips.
justified as if I am stopped out we are creating a lower low which would cause me to have a short bias.
still, 38.4 pips isn't that bad.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Euro
so as I have been focusing on solely one pair, I have tried to trade only when I recognize and can justify that a trend has been started.
I have taken a tiny euro position, Long @ 1.29316, with an SL @ 1.28700.
reasoning:
Euro has been a bloody mess this week (so far). As I see the downtrend line approaching I begin to think that we are at a key support level. I looked to daily, this area happens to lie within 100 pips of the 61.8% fib level. As I am thinking that there will be a retrace as according to my trading rules, there needs to be a retrace in order to confirm that this is a downtrend on daily (My past week has been trading the previous retracements on daily). So Lets set some key levels.
WELL...
The trend line lies around 1.31, which isn't a bad level. 1.3150. I drew a fib from the point where it last neared the trend line to where it stalled, and 1.3150 is the 50%.
now 1.3150 - 1.39316 = ~119 pips with ~60 pip risk.
small position as I am testing the theory, but if new trend does appear I will pounce upon its waves. The size of the trade is 1/10th of what I usually trade, and I am still profitable for the month even if I am stopped.
I have taken a tiny euro position, Long @ 1.29316, with an SL @ 1.28700.
reasoning:
Euro has been a bloody mess this week (so far). As I see the downtrend line approaching I begin to think that we are at a key support level. I looked to daily, this area happens to lie within 100 pips of the 61.8% fib level. As I am thinking that there will be a retrace as according to my trading rules, there needs to be a retrace in order to confirm that this is a downtrend on daily (My past week has been trading the previous retracements on daily). So Lets set some key levels.
WELL...
The trend line lies around 1.31, which isn't a bad level. 1.3150. I drew a fib from the point where it last neared the trend line to where it stalled, and 1.3150 is the 50%.
now 1.3150 - 1.39316 = ~119 pips with ~60 pip risk.
small position as I am testing the theory, but if new trend does appear I will pounce upon its waves. The size of the trade is 1/10th of what I usually trade, and I am still profitable for the month even if I am stopped.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Notes
Finding that patterns emerge from price action. However, they are never the same, yet rely on the same principle.
When price drops significantly, it slowly begins to retrace, creating a lot of market noise. You can profit greatly from watching the noise and filtering it mentally so that you know when the retrace is over and the price begins to follow the original movement.
I watch for these stalling points, and base my trades off of these. I look for 3-5 pips before taking partial profits, and usually start by taking 50% of the position which limits my risk. Then pending my feeling on the movement, I take profits ~10,~15,~20 pips.
I peel off the largest percentage first as I want to lock in profits as pertaining to my calculated cost of living (~$30 a day), I lock in what I need to break even, then let the rest run to profitability.
Quoting an article:
When price advances think sell, stopping you from buying at the top and entering short as it contradicts the bias.
Also came to the conclusion that to trade for a living I will need $10 000 in an account, and make at least 3 pips a day. Toying with the idea of building an LLC shell to use, as I could "pay" myself my living expenses every month.
When price drops significantly, it slowly begins to retrace, creating a lot of market noise. You can profit greatly from watching the noise and filtering it mentally so that you know when the retrace is over and the price begins to follow the original movement.
I watch for these stalling points, and base my trades off of these. I look for 3-5 pips before taking partial profits, and usually start by taking 50% of the position which limits my risk. Then pending my feeling on the movement, I take profits ~10,~15,~20 pips.
I peel off the largest percentage first as I want to lock in profits as pertaining to my calculated cost of living (~$30 a day), I lock in what I need to break even, then let the rest run to profitability.
Quoting an article:
When price advances think sell, stopping you from buying at the top and entering short as it contradicts the bias.
Also came to the conclusion that to trade for a living I will need $10 000 in an account, and make at least 3 pips a day. Toying with the idea of building an LLC shell to use, as I could "pay" myself my living expenses every month.
Trading
Trying to figure out if I am on a hot streak, or if I am finally getting it.
19 wins 4 losses.
+4% this week trading part time.
19 wins 4 losses.
+4% this week trading part time.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
How does this happen?
I logically look at the markets on longer time frames, and It just feels what will happen in coming days forces my hand on taking a trade, and I end up profitable.
I picked bottom on usdcad +130 pips, played euro short on Sunday gap should have held. I treasure my sleep, and cannot sleep with large positions on.
Need to find a way to keep me looking objectively at prices instead of random lines on the screen.
I logically look at the markets on longer time frames, and It just feels what will happen in coming days forces my hand on taking a trade, and I end up profitable.
I picked bottom on usdcad +130 pips, played euro short on Sunday gap should have held. I treasure my sleep, and cannot sleep with large positions on.
Need to find a way to keep me looking objectively at prices instead of random lines on the screen.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Haven't really had time to trade lately, and when I do I am trading dead markets.
Working pretty much every day serving, coming home doing Math to get into Math&econ at university.
Started thinking about buying some equities long term (distressed equities) being AIG, Citi, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, DXO (DB oil 2x etf).
Also have been trying to get my first "Pricer" built but finding it quite difficult as the tools I need are quite expensive (Bloomberg ~$1500 a month, Esignal ~200-500 a month, Reuters ~$2500 a month) . Might just focus on the theory for a bit then move to practice once I have gotten both my math and programming skills upto par.
Overall I KNOW that my trading theory works (with or without indicators, as I can spot the entries without indicators now), I need to work on what is happening to the market at what time of the day so that I can monitor where I take entries. I.E. I get off work at 930, get home at 10, and Asia is still on lunch so its usually slow, I take an entry 10m before they are back from lunch, all of a sudden I am stopped out due to the Nikkei being bought/sold over lunch.
"Every action we take, everything we do, is either a victory or defeat in the struggle to become what we want to be" Ninon de Lenclos.
Working pretty much every day serving, coming home doing Math to get into Math&econ at university.
Started thinking about buying some equities long term (distressed equities) being AIG, Citi, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, DXO (DB oil 2x etf).
Also have been trying to get my first "Pricer" built but finding it quite difficult as the tools I need are quite expensive (Bloomberg ~$1500 a month, Esignal ~200-500 a month, Reuters ~$2500 a month) . Might just focus on the theory for a bit then move to practice once I have gotten both my math and programming skills upto par.
Overall I KNOW that my trading theory works (with or without indicators, as I can spot the entries without indicators now), I need to work on what is happening to the market at what time of the day so that I can monitor where I take entries. I.E. I get off work at 930, get home at 10, and Asia is still on lunch so its usually slow, I take an entry 10m before they are back from lunch, all of a sudden I am stopped out due to the Nikkei being bought/sold over lunch.
"Every action we take, everything we do, is either a victory or defeat in the struggle to become what we want to be" Ninon de Lenclos.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
scalping
so first lesson learned months ago was that you play the secondary move and not the first as the probability is higher...
I have been puting this to practice and have had mixed results...
basically is the lie and wait tactic.
If I sit and watch my charts, after 10-15 mins I start to feel the market, and I begin to follow the spikes. My losing trades are when I have not gotten the feeling of the market, or when I enter late. Also realising that position size is key. You want to be able to peel off risk early incase you are wrong, and have a bit running incase market accepts the new direction.
EXample:
was short euro @ 1.26816 as a scalp, testing the water. Got out +5.2 at 1.26764 when market started stalling. This made me thing that yes market is short, but not ready to drop yet. Re entered with larger size at 1.26741, took 1/2 at 1.26708 +3.3, retraced and then market moved in, took 1/2 remainder at 1.26648 +9.3 and remainder @ 1.26612 +12.9.
euro ran down to 1.26445 and is still running...I should have held the last part to b.e. need to work on that.
I have been puting this to practice and have had mixed results...
basically is the lie and wait tactic.
If I sit and watch my charts, after 10-15 mins I start to feel the market, and I begin to follow the spikes. My losing trades are when I have not gotten the feeling of the market, or when I enter late. Also realising that position size is key. You want to be able to peel off risk early incase you are wrong, and have a bit running incase market accepts the new direction.
EXample:
was short euro @ 1.26816 as a scalp, testing the water. Got out +5.2 at 1.26764 when market started stalling. This made me thing that yes market is short, but not ready to drop yet. Re entered with larger size at 1.26741, took 1/2 at 1.26708 +3.3, retraced and then market moved in, took 1/2 remainder at 1.26648 +9.3 and remainder @ 1.26612 +12.9.
euro ran down to 1.26445 and is still running...I should have held the last part to b.e. need to work on that.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Monday, March 2, 2009
Positions (late post)
I opened the following yesterday:
L euro 1.25785 SL 1.24785
S usdchf 1.17290 SL 1.18290
S usdcad 1.27527 SL 1.28527 which was stopped out -100
I would really like to see 1.30-1.35 on euro and ~1.12 on swissy over the coming month.
L euro 1.25785 SL 1.24785
S usdchf 1.17290 SL 1.18290
S usdcad 1.27527 SL 1.28527 which was stopped out -100
I would really like to see 1.30-1.35 on euro and ~1.12 on swissy over the coming month.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Arbitrage
Ok so as I have been learning and researching some investment ideas/strategies I discovered this:
Nortel Networks is listed on both US (NRTLQ) and Canadian exchanges (NT).
NT closing price: $0.10 CAD
NRTLQ closing price: $0.0840 USD
USDCAD ask price: 1.2522
1. Buy 1000 shares of NT for $100.00 CAD
2. Sell 1000 shares of NRTLQ for $84.00 USD
3. Sell $84.00 USD for CAD @ 1.2522 or $105.18 CAD
Realized profit: $105.18 CAD - $100.00 CAD = $5.18 CAD.
Now how would you close this out?
Yes you are long and short Nortel, but will the broker you are selling NRTLQ from accept NT stocks as the cover?
EDIT: Checked my personal bank's website, they are quoting 1.2246 for usd into cad, making 84.00 USD into $102.87 CAD *checked using their fx calculator, convert from x to y*. Realized profit of $2.87 CAD. Will pose question to my broker tomorrow on this subject.
Nortel Networks is listed on both US (NRTLQ) and Canadian exchanges (NT).
NT closing price: $0.10 CAD
NRTLQ closing price: $0.0840 USD
USDCAD ask price: 1.2522
1. Buy 1000 shares of NT for $100.00 CAD
2. Sell 1000 shares of NRTLQ for $84.00 USD
3. Sell $84.00 USD for CAD @ 1.2522 or $105.18 CAD
Realized profit: $105.18 CAD - $100.00 CAD = $5.18 CAD.
Now how would you close this out?
Yes you are long and short Nortel, but will the broker you are selling NRTLQ from accept NT stocks as the cover?
EDIT: Checked my personal bank's website, they are quoting 1.2246 for usd into cad, making 84.00 USD into $102.87 CAD *checked using their fx calculator, convert from x to y*. Realized profit of $2.87 CAD. Will pose question to my broker tomorrow on this subject.
positions
stopped out of both cable and dllryen only to have them run a few hundred pips in my favor.
my fault for putting a small sl on daily tf.
still holding euro long though.
my fault for putting a small sl on daily tf.
still holding euro long though.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
trades
so last night I took 3 trades off daily charts:
Long euro 1.25860 SL 1.24860
Long Cable 1.42732 SL 1.41732
Short Dllryen 93.467 SL 94.467
Long euro 1.25860 SL 1.24860
Long Cable 1.42732 SL 1.41732
Short Dllryen 93.467 SL 94.467
Monday, February 16, 2009
Monday, February 2, 2009
Cable
Took the position too early. I still have a short Cable bias, and I am slowly becoming USD bullish.
Watching cable to see what happens.
Stopped out -133 pips
Watching cable to see what happens.
Stopped out -133 pips
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Ideas
Ok. So I am working on turning my edge into a strategy.
I understand two strategies.
1. There is a market leader, and the rest follow this leader. The leader is always changing. Also, if the others don't follow, take the opposite position. Look for who is stalling, who is moving, and who has recently made a big move. This is known as ticker tape reading. Usually used to scalp, but I think the strategy can be applied fundamentally.
2. Trend is your friend. Ichimoku is a trend indicator that I know inside and out (spent over a year learning this system).
Now I need to combine them together to create a stratagem. Considering using a basket trading style, where I decide fundamentally on a leader, then begin to place positions based on 1st line, 2nd line, etc. Where larger positions are placed on leader, smaller on the lower volatility followers. Risky, Yes.
Currently in the process of unpacking after moving into a new place. Will get back to this later.
I understand two strategies.
1. There is a market leader, and the rest follow this leader. The leader is always changing. Also, if the others don't follow, take the opposite position. Look for who is stalling, who is moving, and who has recently made a big move. This is known as ticker tape reading. Usually used to scalp, but I think the strategy can be applied fundamentally.
2. Trend is your friend. Ichimoku is a trend indicator that I know inside and out (spent over a year learning this system).
Now I need to combine them together to create a stratagem. Considering using a basket trading style, where I decide fundamentally on a leader, then begin to place positions based on 1st line, 2nd line, etc. Where larger positions are placed on leader, smaller on the lower volatility followers. Risky, Yes.
Currently in the process of unpacking after moving into a new place. Will get back to this later.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Monday, January 26, 2009
Flat all
Flat all positions, prices did not break above cloud. Watching to see what happens.
Euro Long: 1.3080 Flat: 1.3205 Profit: 125 pips
Eur/Yen Long: 116.65 Flat: 117.95 Profit: 130 pips
Swissy Short: 1.1499 Flat: 1.1372 Profit: 127
Total daily profit: +382
See what happens when I follow my system?
Euro Long: 1.3080 Flat: 1.3205 Profit: 125 pips
Eur/Yen Long: 116.65 Flat: 117.95 Profit: 130 pips
Swissy Short: 1.1499 Flat: 1.1372 Profit: 127
Total daily profit: +382
See what happens when I follow my system?
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Ok so this is CL daily chart from Futuresource.com. As you can see we are about to hit resistance at 50.00 area. Now what I am thinking will happen is that around the resistance, people will begin to sell thinking that the market is still short, so it will bounce at first.I believe that the market will be caught short, so it will begin buying back on that small bounce, which will begin the uptrend. Using the usual breakout tp calculations (H-L)+H, you get a target of about 65 before a retrace.
Lets see how right I am.
USDCAD and some other thoughts
OK so my near term analysis is this:
Oil has formed a double bottom break of 50-65 is confirmation. I say its plausible that an uptrend will occur to around 90 area. This is based on the fact that Both CAD (oil based) and EURO (inflation based) currencies are beginning to consolidate and look to head north in the near term (coming month or two).
I took a USD/CAD short position @ 1.2490 on Friday, held over the weekend +176.
now my key levels to watch are:
Euro: 1.3100
USD/CAD: 1.2250
Swissy: 1.1400
Eur/Yen: 117.00
USD/Yen: too messy for me right now
Cable: This is interesting. The UK is currently up shit creek without a boat (worse than being there without a paddle). Waiting to see how things play out on their part before I take anything. Plausible that enough selling of the USD on any cross will cause cable to gain strength.
Oil has formed a double bottom break of 50-65 is confirmation. I say its plausible that an uptrend will occur to around 90 area. This is based on the fact that Both CAD (oil based) and EURO (inflation based) currencies are beginning to consolidate and look to head north in the near term (coming month or two).
I took a USD/CAD short position @ 1.2490 on Friday, held over the weekend +176.
now my key levels to watch are:
Euro: 1.3100
USD/CAD: 1.2250
Swissy: 1.1400
Eur/Yen: 117.00
USD/Yen: too messy for me right now
Cable: This is interesting. The UK is currently up shit creek without a boat (worse than being there without a paddle). Waiting to see how things play out on their part before I take anything. Plausible that enough selling of the USD on any cross will cause cable to gain strength.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Schooling.
Due to OC transpo strike here in Ottawa, I have no way to attend University until the strike is over. I have dropped Carleton University, and have begun taking my mathematics courses online. Taking them online saves me a rather large sum of money, and allows me to do things in my own time which drecreases the opportunity cost of school because I can open up my work schedule.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
