Thursday, May 7, 2009

Euro, Oil and why I expect a positive NFP

OK soooooo


EU cut rates by 25 bp dismorning. Ok that didn't do much as Euro is still in a downtrend because people are awaiting the NFP tomorow. This leads me to thinking that we shall see a higher NFP number, possibly 10-20 000 if its positive, or close to 0 if its negative.

Trichet pretty much said that Euro is cutting because they dont need to fight inflation right now, they need to focus on expansion and job creation. I think this is somewhat funny as Oil broke out this week, sitting around 57 right now. Resistance levels are around 65-70, and then 90-110. I believe that it will begin a new bull run because the CAD is also gaining ground on the USD.

Tomorow could spark a nice bullrun, despite the "sell in May and walk away" attitude.

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