Forex never sleeps, neither does the fund manager

I have been short USDCAD since early september (1.0474) and still holding a runner + ~2200$.

Went long usdchf last night @ 9713 on daily. ahead of signal but I am profitable + ~1500$.



I have been posting a lot lately, guess I am kind of mulling things over. It's been just over 5 years I think since I started trading and I haven't been live in over a year (actually I think it was 2008). I think demo has made me somewhat reckless, leaving me with the hope that my positions become profitable (even though Id be up a significant amount this year if it wasn't for position sizing on my cable short beginning of the year, and my usdjpy conviction as of late). Been attempting to do this University of London/LSE external study work, but finding that it is really lacking the explanation of a physical classroom (or is it my absolute hate for micro economics?). I haven't been a great student in the past, but these past 2 years I have gone from a C student to an A student in a subject I haven't been good at since elementary. Decided to go back to the previous university and play by their rules. The trade off of having a good name on my piece of paper vs having a piece of paper I can afford is over. Although that piece of paper will make it easier for me to land a job in the finance world, I want to be a fund manager. Will the name help me raise capital? Probably, but what's the point of the name without the record to back it up? All I need is the basics to get my strategy programmed/backtested, then if plausible I can focus on forming the fund. So I won't be making over 300 000/year managing over 100 mio. Whatever. If I can pull good results from 100 000, then eventually, it will be 1mio, etc.

that was a huge block of rant hahaha, guess its my 230am rant time.


-P.

twitter!

oh ya! so I caved and made a twitter account!

now you can get my market sentiment updates in near real time!


@confusdeconmist

Programming todo list

I had surgery on the 14th, so have been on medical leave since then. I am also moving back in with parents in November to save some money (sucks to be not making money and still paying bills), try and find a better paying job. Basically saying I have not purchased Matlab yet (checked out the other option posted in comments but it seems less user friendly), but I am going to start planning how I should program this strategy first.

Logical choice would be to program the moving averages first, then setup rules for the different signals.

**stolen from Oanda's website**
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/learn/forex-indicators/ichimoku-kinko-hyo

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart consists of five lines and a cloud. It accepts three configurable time intervals (x,y,z) as parameters and is calculated as follows:

1. Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line ) = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past x periods
2. Kijun-Sen (Base Line) = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past y periods
3. Chikou Span (Lagging Span) = Today's closing price plotted y periods behind
4. Senkou Span A = (Tenkan-Sen + Kijun-Sen) / 2, plotted y periods ahead
5. Senkou Span B = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past z periods, plotted y periods ahead

The cloud, known as the Kumo, is the space between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B.

**end of Oanda info**

Additional Kumo information: Usually, the thicker the kumo cloud, the stronger the support/resistance is. Also, there tends to be key levels called kumo shadows whenever the kumo goes sideways and creates a sideways cloud.

ok so There are essentially three types of signals and they have two directions, bearish or bullish.

For all signals, the tenkan must cross the kijun, and the chikou span must be above the previous price action (or below depending on bull/bear). What changes the strength of the signal is whether or not they cross below, inside, or above the kumo (essentially the support/resistance lines in a moving average form).

I think thats pretty good for now.


-Patrick

Matlab testing premise

ok so I have given up on the co-integration idea for now, started working on something temorarily more profitable.

Basically going to program my Ichimoku indicator into matlab. Back testing the 6 signals the indicator produces to test for: A. Legnth of trade in days B. profit of signal in pips.

basis being that I wish to use covered calls to help fix my money management strategy. Basically, as ichimoku has a trailing stop loss built in, calculating the average movement of each signal and its legnth would make me able to create a generalised covered call strategy. Effectively limiting my topside, but virtually destroying my downside.

My worries:
Greeks. I am very bad with them, and the only two I see as being against me would be volatility and delta. Delta can be managed by activly changing the size of the spot trade to match the short option position, but still not sure.

I am sick of my positional stragies being right, but at the wrong time. I figure that this strategy can help with that by recovering the cost of being early or just plain wrong.

currently @ parents so will post more later.

USDJPY

we hit 82.30 dismorning and I closed the position for a loss.

We have a war between the central banks across the world right now. Rumors that EU and BOE bought multiple billions of yen today, making my long even more useless.

sitting out for a while and hitting the theoretical drawing board before I get back in.

Appears that BoJ cuts were meaning less...hitting my bottom atr level...ADP NFP report in the morning, lets see what happens.

Really looking for usd correction, but this current Central Bank war is making things really really ugly...

USDJPY

Added some more at 83.22 and 83.24, average is now 83.74.

holding 20 lots long.


market went to re-test the market lows, hopfully this will remain a bullish sign and we will break that 84.25 level with ease.

USDJPY

I have been buying this pair for a week now.

currently holding 1.2 mio long with 83.949 average, with a bid for 200k more at 93.67 (if filled I am playing $140 per 0.01 movement) and the pair currently has a daily ATR of 80 pips over the last 30 days. So potential VaR for the day is +/- 140*80 or $11 200 usd.


I am convicted that USDJPY will rise going into the end of the year, and will keep buying.