US DEBT CRISIS

ok, why am I posting this at 1245am? good question, I dont know the answer but apparently it helps me sleep.


SOOO

WSJ reported US hit its debt ceiling today or tomorrow, meaning 11weeks till they default on their debts.

That means crazy amounts of politics in coming weeks, basis being raising the us debt levels so that they can use debt to pay off debt until the market can support restructuring of their debt (or a mass weakening of the USD)

I want to be short as much usd as possible right now, expecting volatility to skyrocket in coming weeks.


anywho...SLEEP!

have to be up in 5 hours for german...

back to the basics

Every once in a while its good to go back and work on the true basics of our trade.

Also have started coming to various conclusions. Mainly, I am noticing that making things complicated only works when you have the means todo so. Also, I have come to the conclusion that speculation never changes. The reason people like Jesse Livermore, and Rollo Tape live on is because they were the ones that said it as it is. Trading isn't about the indicators, the mathematics, the ratios, it's about the gut instinct. When this is moving, what is going to happen to this. The whole premise of money flow within a market. Mainly in currencies, one cross cannot get stronger without one or the other moving as they have the same base currency. If usd is weakening, it must be weakening across the board but at different rates. So you essentially are using that idea to create a gut instinct that if fufilled will create profits.


"In a gold rush, if you have no gold, then you can sell shovels"

Citi Flash Crash?

Wondering if Citi will be a potential target when they complete their 1:10 R/S...

I.E. price from 4x.xx to 4.xx and back...

German

Needed to take another class this summer, didn't want to take a math course so I registered for Intensive German. 3 hours a day, 4 days a week...

Mean Reversion trading systems

OK so heres the basis...

Price is a number, and as the number moves up/down you can calculate a mean average. Mean Reversion trading is basically betting that the price will go back to the mean value and you will profit from the movement.

Ideas for mean reversion system:

Equity indexes:

You take the Dow components, plot them on a daily return in % chart. You buy/sell the extreme value stocks, and sell the index, profit the difference (possibly use options on the index?)


Forex:

Same as equity, except you plot the G7 currencies, buying the low, selling the high and betting they will revert to a mean value.


ANYWAYS, just an idea...my math and programming skills aren't high enough to work on this further. Just a post for later down the road.

Why comissions kill the retail investment markets

Realized that I pay 29.99/trade. That's 59.98/round trip.

insane.

I really want to know what it is like to be an investment institution and not have to pay for your trades...

University/OSAP

Still have not heard back from Carleton about my application (since it was sent to sr. admissions officer), so I am taking German this summer, and applying for OSAP which is an interest free student loan. Hoping I get it, work has been slow lately, and I have a list a mile long of things that need to get done.

already started cutting out unnecessary spending, time to find a 2nd job (IF I can)...