Research in Motion Risk Arbitrage Idea
Rimm currently has a bid/ask on the TSX of:
17.99/18.05 Canadian dollars
This means you can currently sell 1000 rim shares for $17990.00 +commission.
RIMM is trading in the US at:
17.34/17.35$ US Dollars.
Currently the conversion rate of US to Canadian cash rate using TD is:
1.0223
Meaning you can buy 1000 Rimm Shares for 17736.91 Canadian Dollars +commission.
Not really profitable on small level, but calculate a larger amount, say 1000 shares (still same commission)
Buy 1000 shares in US for 17 350 USD or 17 736.91 CAD, Sell 1000 Shares in Canada for 17 990.00 CAD. Your unrealised profits are 17 990 - 17 736.91 = $253.09
Risks:
-Holding while waiting for prices to converge
-Currency risk.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
School Life.
Been very busy lately.
noticing I still need to work on organization. Realistically the work isn't that hard, its finding the time to do all of it, pay bills, and still keep a social life.
Was sick last week so I have a bunch to catch up on, plus two major assignments due this week, and another midterm on Friday.
Marks have been ok, lately they have been dropping. Time to get my ass back in gear and get'r'done.
Monday, September 12, 2011
A logical Argument on HFT
Regulating HFT will cause Volatile markets. Volatile markets cause people to lose money. Therefore, Regulators want you to lose money.
Debate.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Admitted!
Was admitted to Carleton University for Quantitative and Mathematical Economics for September!
Only took 3 years to get in...
Only took 3 years to get in...
Friday, July 8, 2011
Short USA conviction
I added a few more otm SHY options the other day (remind me to rant about the execution given to me by my broker...market was 0.10/0.15, market filled me at 0.15 then dropped to 0.05/0.10)...ANYWHO
I am now convicted that the USA will indeed default on their short term loans. If not default, they will create a QE3 which will roll their short term debt into long term debt, essentially doing the same thing that Greece is doing (except Moody's doesn't threaten to lower US debt for the rollovers). BUT by rolling their debt, people will begin to demand more interest for short term loans because of the risk of default on the ever growing debt crisis that the USA has yet to resolve. This higher interest idea came to me after how poorly the 2y auctions have been doing. People clearly do not want to buy bonds at this low of a rate anymore, if nobody is there to buy, the rate will go down until someone starts buying.
Obama reported he wanted to cut 20billion a year over the next decade...even by rolling your debts into longer term debts, your still paying interest, and that debt is going to grow exponentially.
Realistically, If shy drops 3% I will be a happy person (81.00). Lower than that I would be ecstatic.
I am now convicted that the USA will indeed default on their short term loans. If not default, they will create a QE3 which will roll their short term debt into long term debt, essentially doing the same thing that Greece is doing (except Moody's doesn't threaten to lower US debt for the rollovers). BUT by rolling their debt, people will begin to demand more interest for short term loans because of the risk of default on the ever growing debt crisis that the USA has yet to resolve. This higher interest idea came to me after how poorly the 2y auctions have been doing. People clearly do not want to buy bonds at this low of a rate anymore, if nobody is there to buy, the rate will go down until someone starts buying.
Obama reported he wanted to cut 20billion a year over the next decade...even by rolling your debts into longer term debts, your still paying interest, and that debt is going to grow exponentially.
Realistically, If shy drops 3% I will be a happy person (81.00). Lower than that I would be ecstatic.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
US short terms and greek bonds
So noticed that everyone had been buying treasuries and the yield went to 0.37. Thinking that the US debt ceiling (if raised) will greatly increase supply, but not demand, I bought a put on SHY (1-3 year short term us treasury etf) @ 85.00 for 0.93.
If US defaults, I break the bank, if they raise the ceiling, i make a little.
Also been looking at greek bonds...the combined rollover bond is 53.xx, 54.xx now. I want to buy this but cannot through my broker. Cannot even find an etf on it...
If US defaults, I break the bank, if they raise the ceiling, i make a little.
Also been looking at greek bonds...the combined rollover bond is 53.xx, 54.xx now. I want to buy this but cannot through my broker. Cannot even find an etf on it...
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Stress
So basically on my last hail Mary for getting into school for September and think I may have to actually sit and think of a fallback plan.
I have been at Carleton for almost as long as an Undergraduate program, yet they still will not let me into full time studies.
Make or break time is here, I am teetering on the pass/fail grade of my German course (pass is 63%), and I have started buckling down for the last 2 weeks in hopes I can somehow get an extra 10% boost.
NEEDLESS to say I am stressed for a bunch of things, but work looks like it is picking up now, so at least money wont be one of my major concerns right now.
Anywho, just a short rant today. Time for bed.
ps. I really need to work on the grammar and structure of these late night rants.
I have been at Carleton for almost as long as an Undergraduate program, yet they still will not let me into full time studies.
Make or break time is here, I am teetering on the pass/fail grade of my German course (pass is 63%), and I have started buckling down for the last 2 weeks in hopes I can somehow get an extra 10% boost.
NEEDLESS to say I am stressed for a bunch of things, but work looks like it is picking up now, so at least money wont be one of my major concerns right now.
Anywho, just a short rant today. Time for bed.
ps. I really need to work on the grammar and structure of these late night rants.
Monday, May 16, 2011
US DEBT CRISIS
ok, why am I posting this at 1245am? good question, I dont know the answer but apparently it helps me sleep.
SOOO
WSJ reported US hit its debt ceiling today or tomorrow, meaning 11weeks till they default on their debts.
That means crazy amounts of politics in coming weeks, basis being raising the us debt levels so that they can use debt to pay off debt until the market can support restructuring of their debt (or a mass weakening of the USD)
I want to be short as much usd as possible right now, expecting volatility to skyrocket in coming weeks.
anywho...SLEEP!
have to be up in 5 hours for german...
SOOO
WSJ reported US hit its debt ceiling today or tomorrow, meaning 11weeks till they default on their debts.
That means crazy amounts of politics in coming weeks, basis being raising the us debt levels so that they can use debt to pay off debt until the market can support restructuring of their debt (or a mass weakening of the USD)
I want to be short as much usd as possible right now, expecting volatility to skyrocket in coming weeks.
anywho...SLEEP!
have to be up in 5 hours for german...
Friday, May 13, 2011
back to the basics
Every once in a while its good to go back and work on the true basics of our trade.
Also have started coming to various conclusions. Mainly, I am noticing that making things complicated only works when you have the means todo so. Also, I have come to the conclusion that speculation never changes. The reason people like Jesse Livermore, and Rollo Tape live on is because they were the ones that said it as it is. Trading isn't about the indicators, the mathematics, the ratios, it's about the gut instinct. When this is moving, what is going to happen to this. The whole premise of money flow within a market. Mainly in currencies, one cross cannot get stronger without one or the other moving as they have the same base currency. If usd is weakening, it must be weakening across the board but at different rates. So you essentially are using that idea to create a gut instinct that if fufilled will create profits.
"In a gold rush, if you have no gold, then you can sell shovels"
Also have started coming to various conclusions. Mainly, I am noticing that making things complicated only works when you have the means todo so. Also, I have come to the conclusion that speculation never changes. The reason people like Jesse Livermore, and Rollo Tape live on is because they were the ones that said it as it is. Trading isn't about the indicators, the mathematics, the ratios, it's about the gut instinct. When this is moving, what is going to happen to this. The whole premise of money flow within a market. Mainly in currencies, one cross cannot get stronger without one or the other moving as they have the same base currency. If usd is weakening, it must be weakening across the board but at different rates. So you essentially are using that idea to create a gut instinct that if fufilled will create profits.
"In a gold rush, if you have no gold, then you can sell shovels"
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Citi Flash Crash?
Wondering if Citi will be a potential target when they complete their 1:10 R/S...
I.E. price from 4x.xx to 4.xx and back...
I.E. price from 4x.xx to 4.xx and back...
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
German
Needed to take another class this summer, didn't want to take a math course so I registered for Intensive German. 3 hours a day, 4 days a week...
Mean Reversion trading systems
OK so heres the basis...
Price is a number, and as the number moves up/down you can calculate a mean average. Mean Reversion trading is basically betting that the price will go back to the mean value and you will profit from the movement.
Ideas for mean reversion system:
Equity indexes:
You take the Dow components, plot them on a daily return in % chart. You buy/sell the extreme value stocks, and sell the index, profit the difference (possibly use options on the index?)
Forex:
Same as equity, except you plot the G7 currencies, buying the low, selling the high and betting they will revert to a mean value.
ANYWAYS, just an idea...my math and programming skills aren't high enough to work on this further. Just a post for later down the road.
Price is a number, and as the number moves up/down you can calculate a mean average. Mean Reversion trading is basically betting that the price will go back to the mean value and you will profit from the movement.
Ideas for mean reversion system:
Equity indexes:
You take the Dow components, plot them on a daily return in % chart. You buy/sell the extreme value stocks, and sell the index, profit the difference (possibly use options on the index?)
Forex:
Same as equity, except you plot the G7 currencies, buying the low, selling the high and betting they will revert to a mean value.
ANYWAYS, just an idea...my math and programming skills aren't high enough to work on this further. Just a post for later down the road.
Why comissions kill the retail investment markets
Realized that I pay 29.99/trade. That's 59.98/round trip.
insane.
I really want to know what it is like to be an investment institution and not have to pay for your trades...
insane.
I really want to know what it is like to be an investment institution and not have to pay for your trades...
Monday, May 2, 2011
University/OSAP
Still have not heard back from Carleton about my application (since it was sent to sr. admissions officer), so I am taking German this summer, and applying for OSAP which is an interest free student loan. Hoping I get it, work has been slow lately, and I have a list a mile long of things that need to get done.
already started cutting out unnecessary spending, time to find a 2nd job (IF I can)...
already started cutting out unnecessary spending, time to find a 2nd job (IF I can)...
Friday, April 29, 2011
Trades
so my real trades:
Long citi group july 4.50's @ 0.15, currently 0.18.
Long Citi group july 5.00's @ 0.03, currently 0.03.
I think the bullish run is going to go into the 1:10 reverse split, then retrace, but I am looking to get out before that...looking for 4.70-5.00 and ill be happy.
Demo:
Long cocoa (ccn1) 3188, current 3340 so +152 or +4.76% (playing for 100$ a point).
My trailing stop is currently at 3112. Following ichimoku on this one.
Long citi group july 4.50's @ 0.15, currently 0.18.
Long Citi group july 5.00's @ 0.03, currently 0.03.
I think the bullish run is going to go into the 1:10 reverse split, then retrace, but I am looking to get out before that...looking for 4.70-5.00 and ill be happy.
Demo:
Long cocoa (ccn1) 3188, current 3340 so +152 or +4.76% (playing for 100$ a point).
My trailing stop is currently at 3112. Following ichimoku on this one.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Cocoa Futs
Ok so seeing how most other commodities are already in the sort of trend that is inflation (Lean Hogs) or deflation (random sized lumber) you are left with the middle group, which are stuck in a channel.
Luckily I checked out Cocoa Futs. Check the pic:
Ichimoku is about to cross daily chart, with chickou span also agreeing. I put an order for 10 contracts in (demo obv.) and we shall see how it turns out!
Luckily I checked out Cocoa Futs. Check the pic:
Ichimoku is about to cross daily chart, with chickou span also agreeing. I put an order for 10 contracts in (demo obv.) and we shall see how it turns out!
Volatility Arbitrage
Saw a video on youtube about Volatility Arbitrage from Paul Wilmotts book.
Interesting concept.
Essentially you create a volatility model, compare it to Implied volatility of the option, and then buy/sell the option, using an automated system to remain delta neutral.
I understand some of the math, but really need to learn more on econometrics.
Debating taking Calculus and Probability theory this summer instead of German...we shall see..
Interesting concept.
Essentially you create a volatility model, compare it to Implied volatility of the option, and then buy/sell the option, using an automated system to remain delta neutral.
I understand some of the math, but really need to learn more on econometrics.
Debating taking Calculus and Probability theory this summer instead of German...we shall see..
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Canada
Apparently you cannot do spreads in your tfsa.
I can trade options in my tfsa, but cannot do spreads in my regular account because I do not have margin account because I do not have 25k in there...fml
what is the point of being a small time investor if you have nothing but hardship.
I can trade options in my tfsa, but cannot do spreads in my regular account because I do not have margin account because I do not have 25k in there...fml
what is the point of being a small time investor if you have nothing but hardship.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
May 2011 AIB options
0.50 AIB option listed at 0.10/0.15, brings effective buying price to 75$ +comission...so 86$. Market is trading at 3.13...exersise and sell for $227 profit...
volume is 1400/1 for bid/ask...sooo unsure about this one. Got a quote from my broker, quote said non standard delivery...so going to figure out what that means this weekend.
volume is 1400/1 for bid/ask...sooo unsure about this one. Got a quote from my broker, quote said non standard delivery...so going to figure out what that means this weekend.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
options
so I went long Citi today
4.50 strike
june 2011 expiration
$0.15 for the trade
currently +0.02 or ~+13%
commissions are not even covered yet, simply because the size of my trade...I can do larger trades, but felt starting with one contract was best.
edit:
my Greeks.
Theoretical Value: 0.28
IV: 20.548
Delta: 0.571
Gamma: 0.645
theta: -0.002
vega: 0.007
Rho: 0.004
4.50 strike
june 2011 expiration
$0.15 for the trade
currently +0.02 or ~+13%
commissions are not even covered yet, simply because the size of my trade...I can do larger trades, but felt starting with one contract was best.
edit:
my Greeks.
Theoretical Value: 0.28
IV: 20.548
Delta: 0.571
Gamma: 0.645
theta: -0.002
vega: 0.007
Rho: 0.004
Monday, April 18, 2011
Looking for opportunities
Currently I am looking to start trading stock in 1 contract sizes, not having any luck though.
Starting to think about strategies now more than market conditions.
Starting to think about strategies now more than market conditions.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Forex Option mispricings between OTC and Exchange listed Options
OK so here is what I found (with real numbers)
EUU Rate: 144.90
EUU june 136.00 2011 options: 9.05/9.15 or .0905/.0915 to keep both in standard form
Eurusd rate: 1.4490
Eurusd june 1.3600 2011 options: 0.0887/.0895 or 8.87/8.95 in EUU form.
Now as I recently found out, EUU is cash settled, so from what my understanding is, you basically are paid the difference between the price of the strike and the current market price when it expires.
too keep it standardized, ill switch to cash value.
EUU option value must = 125 000 to match 1 contract eurusd
SO if each contract of EUU is 100 shares of 100 multiple of the eurusd rate, then each contract is 100*100 or 10 000. So 12.5 contracts will equal 1 eurusd contract.
So
you buy 1 eurusd contract for 0.0895*125 000 or 11 187.50$
you sell 12.5 EUU contracts for 12.5*9.05 or 113.25.
On expiration the price drops to 1.40 from 1.4490, you are long eurusd at the market rate of 1.36 (+4000$). You gain the premium from your option (113.25$) from the premium, but lose the profits from your long position on the cash settlement.
So you have:
-11 187.50
+113.50
+4000
-4000
Thus you lose money...I maybe wrong with the ISE FX contract size/value, but looks like thats what it is...unless you do .0915*125 000 you will get 11473.50$, in which case you net 250$....SOOOO I dont know...its 230am, i am tired but cant sleep, this is the best i have for right now....
EUU Rate: 144.90
EUU june 136.00 2011 options: 9.05/9.15 or .0905/.0915 to keep both in standard form
Eurusd rate: 1.4490
Eurusd june 1.3600 2011 options: 0.0887/.0895 or 8.87/8.95 in EUU form.
Now as I recently found out, EUU is cash settled, so from what my understanding is, you basically are paid the difference between the price of the strike and the current market price when it expires.
too keep it standardized, ill switch to cash value.
EUU option value must = 125 000 to match 1 contract eurusd
SO if each contract of EUU is 100 shares of 100 multiple of the eurusd rate, then each contract is 100*100 or 10 000. So 12.5 contracts will equal 1 eurusd contract.
So
you buy 1 eurusd contract for 0.0895*125 000 or 11 187.50$
you sell 12.5 EUU contracts for 12.5*9.05 or 113.25.
On expiration the price drops to 1.40 from 1.4490, you are long eurusd at the market rate of 1.36 (+4000$). You gain the premium from your option (113.25$) from the premium, but lose the profits from your long position on the cash settlement.
So you have:
-11 187.50
+113.50
+4000
-4000
Thus you lose money...I maybe wrong with the ISE FX contract size/value, but looks like thats what it is...unless you do .0915*125 000 you will get 11473.50$, in which case you net 250$....SOOOO I dont know...its 230am, i am tired but cant sleep, this is the best i have for right now....
Friday, April 8, 2011
Investment Law
ok so I have an idea I want to talk about, but not really sure if its plausible in the eyes of the law (hedge fund law)so going to do some reading then I'll write it up here.
Basically has to do with charitable donations, tax law, and seeder funds.
if you can draw the lines, good for you, but just doing some reading before I post more on this.
Realized a lot of the posts this year haven't been like the past. I have been terribly busy lately (starting to lack sleep) trying to balance work, education, gym, and my own personal research (ok and a little research on how beer affects the body once and a while). Will try and work on making the post more argumentative and all around more meaningful to you readers (over 1200 of you now :) )
Basically has to do with charitable donations, tax law, and seeder funds.
if you can draw the lines, good for you, but just doing some reading before I post more on this.
Realized a lot of the posts this year haven't been like the past. I have been terribly busy lately (starting to lack sleep) trying to balance work, education, gym, and my own personal research (ok and a little research on how beer affects the body once and a while). Will try and work on making the post more argumentative and all around more meaningful to you readers (over 1200 of you now :) )
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Canada
Saw a movie on the death of the Avro Aero the other day, made me start thinking about a few things.
Does Canada still stand for what our forefathers fought for?
We used to stand for innovation, and bravery when things got tough. Now all we stand for is status quo and whatever is simply good enough.
Nobody want's change, everyone is happy with status quo...
The liberal left in this country holds us back from greatness. There is ways to achieve socialism through capitalism, in a way which makes it beneficial to all parties, yet everyone demands something for free. They no longer think about the country as a whole, or the greater good of the nation.
anyways, big rant that has been building up for a while. If it doesn't make sense that's ok with me because its simply a rant.
Does Canada still stand for what our forefathers fought for?
We used to stand for innovation, and bravery when things got tough. Now all we stand for is status quo and whatever is simply good enough.
Nobody want's change, everyone is happy with status quo...
The liberal left in this country holds us back from greatness. There is ways to achieve socialism through capitalism, in a way which makes it beneficial to all parties, yet everyone demands something for free. They no longer think about the country as a whole, or the greater good of the nation.
anyways, big rant that has been building up for a while. If it doesn't make sense that's ok with me because its simply a rant.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
usd/cad
current prices:
short call .9950: 0.00497 +16.5
short put .9650: .01026 -43.9
Premium - current = pnl
.01245 - (0.00497+0.01026) = .01245 - .01523 = -27.7
Current Greeks:
Delta: 0.18
Gamma:-22.01
Theta: 67
Vega:-149
current spot rate: 97.13
Trying to understand where the loss is coming from...I am assuming its from volatility, but unsure.
short call .9950: 0.00497 +16.5
short put .9650: .01026 -43.9
Premium - current = pnl
.01245 - (0.00497+0.01026) = .01245 - .01523 = -27.7
Current Greeks:
Delta: 0.18
Gamma:-22.01
Theta: 67
Vega:-149
current spot rate: 97.13
Trying to understand where the loss is coming from...I am assuming its from volatility, but unsure.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Short Strangle's and Reverse Gamma Scalping
Testing out an Idea...
Currently Sold a USD/CAD Apr 15 2011 strangle 0.9650-.9950 for premium of 124.9 pips.
Current Greeks:
delta: -0.3
gamma: -21.44
theta: 65
vega: -164
Break even points:
topside: 0.9950 + 124.9 = 1.00749
downside: .9650 - 124.9 = 0.95251
Currently Sold a USD/CAD Apr 15 2011 strangle 0.9650-.9950 for premium of 124.9 pips.
Current Greeks:
delta: -0.3
gamma: -21.44
theta: 65
vega: -164
Break even points:
topside: 0.9950 + 124.9 = 1.00749
downside: .9650 - 124.9 = 0.95251
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
update
edit: apparently as I wrote this, we got a 4.7 quake...didn't even notice...
so its been a up an down week.
Upside:
Bud Donny took his own money and flew to Japan to help out with the terrible aftermath of the earthquake.
downside:
Probably officially failed out of calculus, **RANT WARNING**
ok so every math course I have taken in my 2 year span at this university has given the tests out of 40. My current calc prof gives the tests out of 15, that means that if you get one small mistake wrong, you lose 1 mark, thus 6% of your test score. This is complete bullshit. The point of a test being out of 40 is so that you can give marks for the student knowing the process, and taking a mark off for incorrect processes. This has caused me to go from an A in calculus to a F. I have put effort into studying, and I know the material, I simply did several small errors and lost 6% for each.
The other thing is that the prof likes to throw complex rational curve balls. He will give you a complex rational function, and you would have to simplify before you do the actual calculus. The error behind this is that if you do the wrong simplification, you have the wrong calculus process, and you lose 6%.
So now I will probably not get into QME for September, and need to waste another year and another couple thousand dollars trying to get into this damn school.
ARGG...
Trading side of things:
I have been long USD this past little bit. I took half my positions ~+200, and closed the rest at breakeven on the spike from the earthquake. Currently reshorted euro at 1.3919. Looking for 1.34 or lower (1.32).
anyways,
All the best to the people of Japan and their families.
so its been a up an down week.
Upside:
Bud Donny took his own money and flew to Japan to help out with the terrible aftermath of the earthquake.
downside:
Probably officially failed out of calculus, **RANT WARNING**
ok so every math course I have taken in my 2 year span at this university has given the tests out of 40. My current calc prof gives the tests out of 15, that means that if you get one small mistake wrong, you lose 1 mark, thus 6% of your test score. This is complete bullshit. The point of a test being out of 40 is so that you can give marks for the student knowing the process, and taking a mark off for incorrect processes. This has caused me to go from an A in calculus to a F. I have put effort into studying, and I know the material, I simply did several small errors and lost 6% for each.
The other thing is that the prof likes to throw complex rational curve balls. He will give you a complex rational function, and you would have to simplify before you do the actual calculus. The error behind this is that if you do the wrong simplification, you have the wrong calculus process, and you lose 6%.
So now I will probably not get into QME for September, and need to waste another year and another couple thousand dollars trying to get into this damn school.
ARGG...
Trading side of things:
I have been long USD this past little bit. I took half my positions ~+200, and closed the rest at breakeven on the spike from the earthquake. Currently reshorted euro at 1.3919. Looking for 1.34 or lower (1.32).
anyways,
All the best to the people of Japan and their families.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Busy week!
Fighting off a cold, while studying for my Calculus and Linear Algebra tests...wooo.
Did a bit of reading via ISE's website and emailed a prof here at school to get a second opinion.
Boston for the weekend, Basketball game, hockey game, and shopping :)
Did a bit of reading via ISE's website and emailed a prof here at school to get a second opinion.
Boston for the weekend, Basketball game, hockey game, and shopping :)
Sunday, February 20, 2011
options arbitrage idea
ok so going to try (if i get free time this week) to show that its plausible to have an arbitrage position between otc FX options, and Exchange listed ISE currency options
Basically from what I gather, ISE creates the options off of their rates also posted on an exchange. Anyways...its 101am and i am dead tired. will try to do a little by little this week to explain my thoughts.
Basically from what I gather, ISE creates the options off of their rates also posted on an exchange. Anyways...its 101am and i am dead tired. will try to do a little by little this week to explain my thoughts.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
updates again
so started my semester off so far with a 96% in linear algebra, but a 33% in calculus. I have issues with the way my calc prof teaches so trying my best to overcome it. test week again this week, so should do fairly well.
Applied to Quantitative and Mathematical Economics with a minor in Political Science as my 1st choice, with my 2nd choice being Applied Financial Markets minor in Psychology.
Hope the best!
Applied to Quantitative and Mathematical Economics with a minor in Political Science as my 1st choice, with my 2nd choice being Applied Financial Markets minor in Psychology.
Hope the best!
Cable
typing from the laptop in a starbucks. internet is faster here than at my place.
been looking at cable recently. my 4h shows a nice break out of last weeks channel, with a retrace to the previous resistance become support, and a bullish signal on my macd/stoch combo 4h system.
1Week ichimoku on cable showing a strong bullish signal, lets see if i can make 4k pips on this trade an hit 2.00 by summertime!
been looking at cable recently. my 4h shows a nice break out of last weeks channel, with a retrace to the previous resistance become support, and a bullish signal on my macd/stoch combo 4h system.
1Week ichimoku on cable showing a strong bullish signal, lets see if i can make 4k pips on this trade an hit 2.00 by summertime!
Monday, January 31, 2011
Liquidity provider high frequency idea...
ok so MB trading allows retail traders to get paid a premium for limit orders when hit.
basically any non marketable orders will receive a premium.
for example:
eurusd bid/ask is 1.5000/1.5500
you place a limit buy at 1.50001, limit offer at 1.50002, if hit you net liquidity premium +profit in pips.
0.00001 *100 000 = 1$
so if you are hit you net 2.95$ on the trade.
if the price drops, you still enter a limit order to sell.
bid/ask falls to 1.49999/1.50039
you place your ask at 1.50000, and if hit your net profit is 0.95$ ($1.00 loss (0.00001 pip) +1.95$ premium).
as price is almost always moving, you can do this several hundred times a day. Need to take into account that you may not be hit, which could result in a much larger loss...so testing needs to be done.
anyone good at programming?? :)
basically any non marketable orders will receive a premium.
for example:
eurusd bid/ask is 1.5000/1.5500
you place a limit buy at 1.50001, limit offer at 1.50002, if hit you net liquidity premium +profit in pips.
0.00001 *100 000 = 1$
so if you are hit you net 2.95$ on the trade.
if the price drops, you still enter a limit order to sell.
bid/ask falls to 1.49999/1.50039
you place your ask at 1.50000, and if hit your net profit is 0.95$ ($1.00 loss (0.00001 pip) +1.95$ premium).
as price is almost always moving, you can do this several hundred times a day. Need to take into account that you may not be hit, which could result in a much larger loss...so testing needs to be done.
anyone good at programming?? :)
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Monday, January 10, 2011
updates/Sudan
Pretty much worked 60 hour weeks in December so haven't really had time to do much. Started back at Carleton University here in Ottawa taking my first year Calc/linear algebra. Should be enough math to get through basic econometric books.
I need to get a summer job lined up, going to start working on resume and a cover letter. Serving/bar tending is pretty much just trying to organize Chaos. Although trading/finance is technically chaos, they tend to get paid more than 8.90/hr, which by the way is under minimum wage (yet Canada still makes me claim my tips)
started a new workout, trying to gain size before I cut down for beach/summer body build. (doing animal Pak intermed. #3 workout, and power eating diet from amazon)
Haven't really been doing much in the markets, been thinking about political ideas lately. I do have a usdjpy long from 82.51 that has been open for a week or so.
Sudan!
so here is my idea/debate I had about this whole Sudan geopolitical thinger (ya thinger is an educated word)
from what I have read in Globe and Mail, they want to create a boarder between the north and south along whatever oil field is in Sudan. Now I disagree with this because as we have seen in the past, one country will take the oil (probably the south). The north, not having anything to export will be forced to devalue its dollar to help make payments. This devaluation will create hyperinflation, which as we learned from Niger (or Zimbabwe, I don't remember) hyper inflation causes riots, which in turn spark civil war. The south, being an oil rich nation, will step up to the plate and help end the north's civil war. The South will then create a de-militarized zone in the north, essentially re-uniting the country under one name, and giving the power to the rich.
not really significant debate, just an idea of what I think could happen.
Sorry for the lack of grammar, spelling, etc, but its 1am, been at school all day then gym.
-Patrick
fxopttrdr at gmail.com
ps: new blackberry (9780 bold), and apparently the Bloomberg app. gives me anything I could ever want for free. I am quite happy.
I need to get a summer job lined up, going to start working on resume and a cover letter. Serving/bar tending is pretty much just trying to organize Chaos. Although trading/finance is technically chaos, they tend to get paid more than 8.90/hr, which by the way is under minimum wage (yet Canada still makes me claim my tips)
started a new workout, trying to gain size before I cut down for beach/summer body build. (doing animal Pak intermed. #3 workout, and power eating diet from amazon)
Haven't really been doing much in the markets, been thinking about political ideas lately. I do have a usdjpy long from 82.51 that has been open for a week or so.
Sudan!
so here is my idea/debate I had about this whole Sudan geopolitical thinger (ya thinger is an educated word)
from what I have read in Globe and Mail, they want to create a boarder between the north and south along whatever oil field is in Sudan. Now I disagree with this because as we have seen in the past, one country will take the oil (probably the south). The north, not having anything to export will be forced to devalue its dollar to help make payments. This devaluation will create hyperinflation, which as we learned from Niger (or Zimbabwe, I don't remember) hyper inflation causes riots, which in turn spark civil war. The south, being an oil rich nation, will step up to the plate and help end the north's civil war. The South will then create a de-militarized zone in the north, essentially re-uniting the country under one name, and giving the power to the rich.
not really significant debate, just an idea of what I think could happen.
Sorry for the lack of grammar, spelling, etc, but its 1am, been at school all day then gym.
-Patrick
fxopttrdr at gmail.com
ps: new blackberry (9780 bold), and apparently the Bloomberg app. gives me anything I could ever want for free. I am quite happy.
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