Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Cable bid/ask: 1.5475/1.5477
Euro bid/ask: 1.2484/1.2486


Day 0:
GBP (100 000)
USD 154 750


Euro 123 938.81
USD (154 750)


Cable Bid/ask:  1.5552/1.5554
Euro Bid/Ask: 1.2490/1.2491


Day 1:
GBP (100 000)
USD 155 520
day1-day 0:  155 520-154 750 = -770


Euro 124 505.64 
USD (155 520)
day1-day0: 124 505.64 - 123 938.81 = +566.83




so still running negative as euro is still preforming worse than cable.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Hypothesis

OK so here is my hypothesis on my pairs trade...

You have two correlated pairs, with similar price, but one is acting more poorly than the other (eur/usd v gbp/usd).  As Euro is fundamentally being hammered, and Cable (gbp/usd) is relatively UN-affected, the euro is undervalued compared to the cable. 

Cable bid/ask: 1.5475/1.5477
Euro bid/ask: 1.2484/1.2486

 Now as you want to remain delta neutral, lets use the premise that we are going to keep each portfolio around $160 000 (or as close as possible) denominated in USD.

so 154 770 usd buys 100 000 gbp.
and 100 000gbp gives you 154 750usd

124 860 usd gives you 100 000 euro
and 100 000 euro gives you 124 840usd

now as one of the two is under distress, and they are both correlated as they are both listed in relation to usd, we will expect they will revert to a mean value.

So I want to sell the stronger, and buy the weaker so that when they converge on the mean, one will profit more than the other.

So to keep this as a ledger, I will list as a debt/credit using brackets () as debts.

Day 0:
GBP (100 000)
USD 154 750

Euro 123 938.81
USD (154 750)

so this shows that as the correlated pairs rise, I will lose money on GBP but make money on Euro.  As I feel Euro is already undervalued, due to recent financial events, I think once it clears that we will see a flood back into euro, raising the price.

more to come...

Truth.



So you think that money is the root of all evil?" said Francisco d'Aconia. "Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears, or of the looters, who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil?

"When you accept money in payment for your effort, you do so only on the conviction that you will exchange it for the product of the effort of others. It is not the moochers or the looters who give value to money. Not an ocean of tears nor all the guns in the world can transform those pieces of paper in your wallet into the bread you will need to survive tomorrow. Those pieces of paper, which should have been gold, are a token of honor – your claim upon the energy of the men who produce. Your wallet is your statement of hope that somewhere in the world around you there are men who will not default on that moral principle which is the root of money. Is this what you consider evil?

"Have you ever looked for the root of production? Take a look at an electric generator and dare tell yourself that it was created by the muscular effort of unthinking brutes. Try to grow a seed of wheat without the knowledge left to you by men who had to discover it for the first time. Try to obtain your food by means of nothing but physical motions – and you'll learn that man's mind is the root of all the goods produced and of all the wealth that has ever existed on earth.

"But you say that money is made by the strong at the expense of the weak? What strength do you mean? It is not the strength of guns or muscles. Wealth is the product of man's capacity to think. Then is money made by the man who invents a motor at the expense of those who did not invent it? Is money made by the intelligent at the expense of the fools? By the able at the expense of the incompetent? By the ambitious at the expense of the lazy? Money is made – before it can be looted or mooched – made by the effort of every honest man, each to the extent of his ability. An honest man is one who knows that he can't consume more than he has produced.

"To trade by means of money is the code of the men of good will. Money rests on the axiom that every man is the owner of his mind and his effort. Money allows no power to prescribe the value of your effort except by the voluntary choice of the man who is willing to trade you his effort in return. Money permits you to obtain for your goods and your labor that which they are worth to the men who buy them, but no more. Money permits no deals except those to mutual benefit by the unforced judgment of the traders. Money demands of you the recognition that men must work for their own benefit, not for their own injury, for their gain, not their loss – the recognition that they are not beasts of burden, born to carry the weight of your misery – that you must offer them values, not wounds – that the common bond among men is not the exchange of suffering, but the exchange of goods. Money demands that you sell, not your weakness to men's stupidity, but your talent to their reason; it demands that you buy, not the shoddiest they offer, but the best your money can find. And when men live by trade – with reason, not force, as their final arbiter – it is the best product that wins, the best performance, then man of best judgment and highest ability – and the degree of a man's productiveness is the degree of his reward. This is the code of existence whose tool and symbol is money. Is this what you consider evil?

"But money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver. It will give you the means for the satisfaction of your desires, but it will not provide you with desires. Money is the scourge of the men who attempt to reverse the law of causality – the men who seek to replace the mind by seizing the products of the mind.

"Money will not purchase happiness for the man who has no concept of what he wants; money will not give him a code of values, if he's evaded the knowledge of what to value, and it will not provide him with a purpose, if he's evaded the choice of what to seek. Money will not buy intelligence for the fool, or admiration for the coward, or respect for the incompetent. The man who attempts to purchase the brains of his superiors to serve him, with his money replacing his judgment, ends up by becoming the victim of his inferiors. The men of intelligence desert him, but the cheats and the frauds come flocking to him, drawn by a law which he has not discovered: that no man may be smaller than his money. Is this the reason why you call it evil?

"Only the man who does not need it, is fit to inherit wealth – the man who would make his own fortune no matter where he started. If an heir is equal to his money, it serves him; if not, it destroys him. But you look on and you cry that money corrupted him. Did it? Or did he corrupt his money? Do not envy a worthless heir; his wealth is not yours and you would have done no better with it. Do not think that it should have been distributed among you; loading the world with fifty parasites instead of one would not bring back the dead virtue which was the fortune. Money is a living power that dies without its root. Money will not serve that mind that cannot match it. Is this the reason why you call it evil?

"Money is your means of survival. The verdict which you pronounce upon the source of your livelihood is the verdict you pronounce upon your life. If the source is corrupt, you have damned your own existence. Did you get your money by fraud? By pandering to men's vices or men's stupidity? By catering to fools, in the hope of getting more than your ability deserves? By lowering your standards? By doing work you despise for purchasers you scorn? If so, then your money will not give you a moment's or a penny's worth of joy. Then all the things you buy will become, not a tribute to you, but a reproach; not an achievement, but a reminder of shame. Then you'll scream that money is evil. Evil, because it would not pinch-hit for your self-respect? Evil, because it would not let you enjoy your depravity? Is this the root of your hatred of money?

"Money will always remain an effect and refuse to replace you as the cause. Money is the product of virtue, but it will not give you virtue and it will not redeem your vices. Money will not give you the unearned, neither in matter nor in spirit. Is this the root of your hatred of money?

"Or did you say it's the love of money that's the root of all evil? To love a thing is to know and love its nature. To love money is to know and love the fact that money is the creation of the best power within you, and your passkey to trade your effort for the effort of the best among men. It's the person who would sell his soul for a nickel, who is the loudest in proclaiming his hatred of money – and he has good reason to hate it. The lovers of money are willing to work for it. They know they are able to deserve it.

"Let me give you a tip on a clue to men's characters: the man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it.

"Run for your life from any man who tells you that money is evil. That sentence is the leper's bell of an approaching looter. So long as men live together on earth and need means to deal with one another – their only substitute, if they abandon money, is the muzzle of a gun.

"But money demands of you the highest virtues, if you wish to make it or to keep it. Men who have no courage, pride, or self-esteem, men who have no moral sense of their right to their money and are not willing to defend it as they defend their life, men who apologize for being rich – will not remain rich for long. They are the natural bait for the swarms of looters that stay under rocks for centuries, but come crawling out at the first smell of a man who begs to be forgiven for the guilt of owning wealth. They will hasten to relieve him of the guilt – and of his life, as he deserves.

"Then you will see the rise of the double standard – the men who live by force, yet count on those who live by trade to create the value of their looted money – the men who are the hitchhikers of virtue. In a moral society, these are the criminals, and the statutes are written to protect you against them. But when a society establishes criminals-by-right and looters-by-law – men who use force to seize the wealth of disarmed victims – then money becomes its creators' avenger. Such looters believe it safe to rob defenseless men, once they've passed a law to disarm them. But their loot becomes the magnet for other looters, who get it from them as they got it. Then the race goes, not to the ablest at production, but to those most ruthless at brutality. When force is the standard, the murderer wins over the pickpocket. And then that society vanishes, in a spread of ruins and slaughter.

"Do you wish to know whether that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of a society's virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion – when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors – when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you – when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – you may know that your society is doomed. Money is so noble a medium that it does not compete with guns and it does not make terms with brutality. It will not permit a country to survive as half-property, half-loot.

"Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it becomes, marked: 'Account overdrawn.'


"When you have made evil the means of survival, do not expect men to remain good. Do not expect them to stay moral and lose their lives for the purpose of becoming the fodder of the immoral. Do not expect them to produce, when production is punished and looting rewarded. Do not ask, 'Who is destroying the world?' You are.


"You stand in the midst of the greatest achievements of the greatest productive civilization and you wonder why it's crumbling around you, while you're damning its life-blood – money. You look upon money as the savages did before you, and you wonder why the jungle is creeping back to the edge of your cities. Throughout men's history, money was always seized by looters of one brand or another, but whose method remained the same: to seize wealth by force and to keep the producers bound, demeaned, defamed, deprived of honor. That phrase about the evil of money, which you mouth with such righteous recklessness, comes from a time when wealth was produced by the labor of slaves – slaves who repeated the motions once discovered by somebody's mind and left unimproved for centuries. So long as production was ruled by force, and wealth was obtained by conquest, there was little to conquer. Yet through all the centuries of stagnation and starvation, men exalted the looters, as aristocrats of the sword, as aristocrats of birth, as aristocrats of the bureau, and despised the producers, as slaves, as traders, as shopkeepers – as industrialists.


"To the glory of mankind, there was, for the first and only time in history, a country of money – and I have no higher, more reverent tribute to pay to America, for this means: a country of reason, justice, freedom, production, achievement. For the first time, man's mind and money were set free, and there were no fortunes-by-conquest, but only fortunes-by-work, and instead of swordsmen and slaves, there appeared the real maker of wealth, the greatest worker, the highest type of human being – the self-made man – the American industrialist.


"If you ask me to name the proudest distinction of Americans, I would choose – because it contains all the others – the fact that they were the people who created the phrase 'to make money'. No other language or nation had ever used these words before; men had always thought of wealth as a static quantity – to be seized, begged, inherited, shared, looted, or obtained as a favor. Americans were the first to understand that wealth has to be created. The words 'to make money' hold the essence of human morality.


"Yet these were the words for which Americans were denounced by the rotted cultures of the looters' continents. Now the looters' credo has brought you to regard your proudest achievements as a hallmark of shame, your prosperity as guilt, your greatest men, the industrialists, as blackguards, and your magnificent factories as the product and property of muscular labor, the labor of whip-driven slaves, like the pyramids of Egypt. The rotter who simpers that he sees no difference between the power of the dollar and the power of the whip, ought to learn the difference on his own hide – as, I think, he will.


"Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask for your own destruction. When money ceases to be the tool by which men deal with one another, then men become the tools of men. Blood, whips and guns – or dollars. Take your choice – there is no other – and your time is running out."


Taken from Atlas Shrugged, a book by Ayn Rand.

Sort of Creeped out by how close this book is to our current situation...or current situation coming close to this book....

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Value

So didn't post this, but my pairs trade was crippled when Citi didn't pass their stress test.

this got me to thinking about the roll value plays in this. I have always seen trading as simply a numbers game, and have started realising that there are two teirs of trading

technical, where you use historical algorithms to try and find high probability situations where trades will be profitable

and fundamental, where you inherently look at the risk of the portfolio, and use the valuation of various securities to off set risk.

problem with this is that I am a FX guy at heart, which means technical is my game...buttttt what if I was to give a country value?

I have started throwing ideas around on how to value a country so you can buy the higher value, sell short a delta neutral version of the lower value, and profit.

this has lead me into my economics book.

1.  Interest rates.  Although this is a good indicator of what is strong or not, hard to choose the timeframe I wish to trade.  Should I use only post auction 10y bonds? etc.

2.  Real GDP m/m.  Harder and involves some calculations but more plausible.


now is there a way to create a sort of index of fundamental values for an economy so I could just grade these countries m/m and test whether or not the higher valuation is correlated to the movement of the FX rate?

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Today Close

Started the day +0.92%, closed the day +1.842%

interesting is looking at the excel placed linear trendline, looks like it has done some sort of mean reversion:


Anyone have any idea how I can get the trendline to also post a trendline at 1 standard deviation?

Updates

Spread dipped a little bit, but looking to recover.  Added a linear line to try and show mean some sort of mean reversion.



Updates in life:

Dad came home from the hospital Monday, so things are improving.  Updated resume, so lets see if  I can find an internship or something like that.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

March 1st update...1.66% in 8 days...



Very interesting...dealing with the long term data I find I made some mistakes possibly, this way I am doing two trades, and actually calculating the PnL...very interesting...

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Quant ideas

Ok so this is going to be a rant about something I tried to figure out when I ran a 1 year (May 16 2011 - present) data chart (same as other one posted) for the same stocks.

Realised that it was quite a volatile strategy, so got me into thinking about how to use a mean reversion strategy for this (I think it's called mean reversion?)

So here is what I did:
  • Took Stock Prices and imput them to excel (using yahoo finance historical eod data)
  • Took the higher priced stock and set base number of shares to 1000.
    • calculated how many shares that same dollar amount would be equivellent in the other stock
  •  Added both day 1 capital to eachother
  • took day 2-day1 as the return on the day
  • Calculated the ROR per day
  • Calculated STDEV of the ROR
    • also calculated -STDEV, 2STDEV,-2STDEV
  •  Charted everything
 So what I think I have is the change in the value of the portfolio from day to day.

What I see now is this:



 Notice how there is a giant move on here?

Am wondering now how to profit from this large (possible 3STDEV move)?

Considering this:
  • When ROR Breaks 2STDEV:
    • Sell portfolio
  • When ROR breaks -2STDEV:
    • Buy Portfolio


Looking for someone to advise on this.  Please Comment or Find me on Linkedin.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Lost a little today

So decided to just post visual chart instead of actual numbers to keep it easier to follow (plus allows me to play around in excel a little more)...



Top is the dollar amount invested in each stock starting on the 1st day, and the gains/losses from each (in dollars).
Bottom is the spread between the two stocks (in dollars).

Sunday, February 26, 2012

As of closing friday..L/S is profitable!

Closing prices today:
BAC: $7.88   $32 071.60 short $284.90
C: $32.35 $32 350.00 $-10
Profit: $274.90

original $ in trade: $64 716.50
profit: 0.425%

notes:
was interesting seeing a reversal and seeing how the short moved enough not just to offset loss on higher priced C, but also to move the pair trade into profitablilty.

Also just completely random but having 284.90 loss on BAC Thursday, and then same amount profit on Friday.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Long/Short Strategy

Closing prices today:
BAC: $8.02   $32 641.40 short $-284.90
C: $32.71 $32 710.00 $+350.00

Profit: $65.10

original $ in trade: $64 716.50
profit: 0.10%



Wednesday, February 22, 2012

An experiement with Long/Short Strategy

Ok so using my limited knowledge on long/short strategy to test out how it works using two companies.

Currently, as I want to keep them in the same sector, with relatively same market cap, I am using BAC and C.

Long 1000 C for $32 360.
Short 4070 BAC for $32 356.50

current spread = $3.50 due to rounding to nearest share


Will look at over the coming week or so how this strategy works.  Clearly just randomly picking stocks, not doing any actual investing.




sidenote from school:  as this is a blog and I do need to vent:

I am out of motivation to try in school, not making money, not getting good grades, being lazy as hell.  Need to rectify this or things wont go well this summer.