recovered most of what I lost using smaller positions and scaling in.

[1:47:18 AM] Patrick May says: thinking long dllryen soon, but not yet
[1:52:30 AM] Patrick May says: tiny long dllryen 95.337
[2:00:45 AM] Patrick May says: tiny euro short 1.41270
[2:02:21 AM] Patrick May says: took -6.3 on dllryen...not logicall...took eyen s 134.577
[2:09:21 AM] Patrick May says: euro looks short longer TF, might leave it overnight...but others look confused
[2:18:54 AM] Patrick May says: added @ 1.41398, 134.683
[2:24:49 AM] Patrick May says: hmmm...understood that they are selling the dollar, but this dllryen weakness hasn't hurt eyen much...
[2:38:05 AM] Patrick May says: would reduce some here but I know that It is too soon, so testing myself and holding out for now
[2:39:02 AM] Patrick May says: not being greedy, trying to work on exits
[2:39:21 AM] Patrick May says: I usually get out too early and miss the run...like my terrible dllryen trade the other day.
[2:39:34 AM] Patrick May says: I am going to test it now, I know I am right, Now how far can it go
[2:39:55 AM] Patrick May says: i have the strategy, need to work on mentality...
[2:41:30 AM] Patrick May says: my entries are fine. my confidence needs to grow. and I need to believe in my positions
[3:01:28 AM] Patrick May says: reduced euro +23.3
[3:01:42 AM] Patrick May says: eyen +23.7
[3:02:27 AM] Patrick May says: again euro +25.x
[3:02:37 AM] Patrick May says: eyen +28.5
[3:03:02 AM] Patrick May says: 10326.02 now
[3:13:19 AM] Patrick May says: partial eyen +9.9
[3:13:32 AM] Patrick May says: +11 partial euro
[3:19:58 AM] Patrick May says: flat eyen +6.8
[3:21:06 AM] Patrick May says: going to keep euro on...market draging dllryen up, euro could still go further south
[3:22:23 AM] Patrick May says: reduced +20.8
[3:22:55 AM] Patrick May says: .1 lot left, sl set at B.e
[3:23:16 AM] Patrick May says: actually 1.4125

Why/how I erased my profits from yesterday.

[2:45:45 AM] Patrick May says: long dllryen @ 94.226
[2:46:26 AM] Patrick May says: for now....we shall see how this goes
[2:47:37 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[2:49:57 AM] Patrick May says: there are people buying, but might be too soon
[2:50:24 AM] Patrick May says: watch the price...dips down like 4-5 pips then spikes up
[2:51:03 AM] Patrick May says: hedged with a euro short 1.41410
[2:52:48 AM] Patrick May says: one of us is goning to get smoked soon Z
[2:52:49 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[2:53:51 AM] Patrick May says: well if it opens positive, your dllryen will me hit, and negative, my short will be destroyed
[2:57:23 AM] Patrick May says: :@ dllryen
[2:57:27 AM] Patrick May says: dax is down isnt it?
[2:58:03 AM] Patrick May says: lol just wait! :P
[2:58:26 AM] Patrick May says: fuck it
[2:58:32 AM] Patrick May says: -17
[2:59:33 AM] Patrick May says: this is illogical...euro drops when dllryen drops, or at least im preportion
[2:59:45 AM] Z man says: look at eur/yen
[2:59:55 AM] Patrick May says: yes, and I am considering long on it lol
[3:00:44 AM] Patrick May says: i am getting slammed on euro short too...grrrrr
[3:00:59 AM] Patrick May says: -17 on that too
[3:01:00 AM] Patrick May says: damn
[3:01:28 AM] Patrick May says: should have gone to bed :P
[3:01:38 AM] Z man says: whats your balance ?
[3:01:58 AM] Patrick May says: 300 less
[3:01:59 AM] Patrick May says: lol
[3:08:39 AM] Patrick May says: 10 more pips and i am back to what i just lost
[3:08:55 AM] Patrick May says: 94.30 and i will exit all positions
[3:09:00 AM] Patrick May says: i still have long dllryen
[3:09:13 AM] Patrick May says: 2 lots @ 94.147 roughly
[3:09:28 AM] Patrick May says: now that i said that its going to get creamed
[3:11:09 AM] Patrick May says: no, but I know I am right and that I can make it back before I sleep
[3:15:09 AM] Patrick May says: good
[3:15:21 AM] Patrick May says: nikkei had a negative start as well, but went well till mid day
[3:16:25 AM] Patrick May says: give me 7 pips
[3:19:28 AM] Patrick May says: impatient
[3:19:30 AM] Patrick May says: :P
[3:19:44 AM] Patrick May says: need euro over 685
[3:23:32 AM] Patrick May says: see if dllryen was weak, then euro would not have stalled, but moved with it
[3:24:46 AM] Patrick May says: might have to get ready to throw a line at euro short lol...refraction is a b.
[3:27:07 AM] Patrick May says: see euro going to shoot dllryen up here



I had already been up roughly 120 pips before this incident. I knew I was right, took too large of position at once too early and didnt get to average out. Greed. Needs to be worked out of me.

[11:19:52 AM] Patrick May says: s euro @ 1.42243
[11:20:23 AM] Patrick May says: s dllryen 93.734
[11:23:37 AM] Patrick May says: and s eyen @ 133.324
[11:25:39 AM] Patrick May says: took +11.2 on eyen
[11:27:13 AM] Patrick May says: +6.5 on euro
[11:30:15 AM] Patrick May says: i know i got out early, but as I am taking small positions I cannot scale them....as dow is at critical level imo, took profits when i had them, holding dllryen to see if dow continues to drop now
[11:34:12 AM] Patrick May says: flat -7.1


so profits:

S Eyen: 11.2
S Euro: 6.5
S dllryen: -7.1


total: 10.6

daily profits: 80.3. 100.75% above daily target.

July 22nd, euro session...i hate mornings...

[3:01:48 AM] Patrick May says: s euro 1.41964
[3:02:41 AM] Patrick May says: took +7.3 on dllryen
[3:06:15 AM] Patrick May says: s dllryen 93.701, eyen 132.962
[3:08:00 AM] Patrick May says: watch dllryen will start to fade, euro will retrace a bit, then we will drop like a rock
[3:13:39 AM] Patrick May says: 1.4150 area would be nice
[3:14:04 AM] Patrick May says: dllryen is the one stalling the show
[3:16:34 AM] Patrick May says: would reduce euro here @ 1.4179-80 area...but too small position on mt4 account
[3:25:14 AM] Patrick May says: flat eyen @ 649 +31.x
[3:25:51 AM] Patrick May says: flat euro 1.41741 +22 i believe
[3:26:10 AM] Patrick May says: +9.3 dllryen
[3:26:17 AM] Patrick May says: @ 93.611


so I was:
Long dllryen: +7.3
Short Dllryen: +9.0
Short Eyen: +31.1
Short Euro: +22.3

Total nights gain: 69.7 pips

beat my target by 74% tonight.

[2:42:28 AM] Patrick May says: logic saying that dllryen should also begin to create nHigh as equities rise
[2:42:54 AM] Patrick May says: but...if its slowing could also mean that its fake move OR that dllryen hasnt caught up yet


Now what I am looking for is a strong euro session, this SHOULD create a stronger dllryen.

problems:

Euro very over-extended. This could cause dllryen to drop significantly more as yen begins to be bought.


took dllryen long 93.648

[2:48:41 PM] Patrick May says: might be interesting time to sell dllryen...people taking profits before weekend



usually prices trend towards the close as people take profits.

Dllryen was about 94.30 when I wrote that, it is now slowly dropping 94.2x area. Dow also looks to be preparing to sell off 8732 area.

Trades

[7/13/2009 10:57:44 PM] Patrick May says: long euro on a theory
[7/13/2009 10:57:55 PM] Patrick May says: nikkei is strong, dllryen reversing, could see euro run up now
[7/13/2009 11:15:05 PM] Patrick May says: now what is more interesting is going to be nikkei post lunch, if we gap up, we will see euro run, and yen sell off...
[12:11:18 AM] Patrick May says: need to see nikkei higher for euro to breakout
[12:44:10 AM] Patrick May says: flat +16.8 @@ 1.39805
[1:00:45 AM] Patrick May says: nikkei was retracing, and although yen is down, I dont euro will run up for a couple hours.

I am starting to post my trade ideology as I go because I need to see the errors in my thought process. This will help me improve my position taking and allow me to correct wrongful thinking.

Money Flow Theory

Theory:

Pairs Traded:
Euro
Eyen
Dllryen

Situation:

Euro 4h is Overextended to the downside, and 30m is consolidated but near upper key level.

Action:
As you want to buy Euro and sell Usd, you begin to check what pairs are doing what. You start with Dllryen. If the Usd is losing strength, then Dllryen will initially drop based on Euro going higher (selling of USD). Note the lower key level of Dllryen as if it breaks it will trigger a drop in Euro. Also the Lower key level is a good place to set a bid order.

You next look at Eyen to see whether or not Euro is infulencing the Yen selloff. As Eyen is getting dragged higher by Euro, Dllryen will follow as the Yen begins to selloff. Hence why it is a good idea to place a bid by lower key Dllryen level. Note upper and lower key levels of Eyen as it can spark Yen to drag down Dllryen and Euro, giving the Usd strength.