Thursday, April 14, 2011

Forex Option mispricings between OTC and Exchange listed Options

OK so here is what I found (with real numbers)

EUU Rate: 144.90
EUU june 136.00 2011 options: 9.05/9.15 or .0905/.0915 to keep both in standard form

Eurusd rate: 1.4490
Eurusd june 1.3600 2011 options: 0.0887/.0895 or 8.87/8.95 in EUU form.

Now as I recently found out, EUU is cash settled, so from what my understanding is, you basically are paid the difference between the price of the strike and the current market price when it expires.

too keep it standardized, ill switch to cash value.

EUU option value must = 125 000 to match 1 contract eurusd

SO if each contract of EUU is 100 shares of 100 multiple of the eurusd rate, then each contract is 100*100 or 10 000. So 12.5 contracts will equal 1 eurusd contract.

So
you buy 1 eurusd contract for 0.0895*125 000 or 11 187.50$

you sell 12.5 EUU contracts for 12.5*9.05 or 113.25.

On expiration the price drops to 1.40 from 1.4490, you are long eurusd at the market rate of 1.36 (+4000$). You gain the premium from your option (113.25$) from the premium, but lose the profits from your long position on the cash settlement.

So you have:
-11 187.50
+113.50
+4000
-4000


Thus you lose money...I maybe wrong with the ISE FX contract size/value, but looks like thats what it is...unless you do .0915*125 000 you will get 11473.50$, in which case you net 250$....SOOOO I dont know...its 230am, i am tired but cant sleep, this is the best i have for right now....

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