Euro

so as I have been focusing on solely one pair, I have tried to trade only when I recognize and can justify that a trend has been started.

I have taken a tiny euro position, Long @ 1.29316, with an SL @ 1.28700.


reasoning:

Euro has been a bloody mess this week (so far). As I see the downtrend line approaching I begin to think that we are at a key support level. I looked to daily, this area happens to lie within 100 pips of the 61.8% fib level. As I am thinking that there will be a retrace as according to my trading rules, there needs to be a retrace in order to confirm that this is a downtrend on daily (My past week has been trading the previous retracements on daily). So Lets set some key levels.

WELL...

The trend line lies around 1.31, which isn't a bad level. 1.3150. I drew a fib from the point where it last neared the trend line to where it stalled, and 1.3150 is the 50%.

now 1.3150 - 1.39316 = ~119 pips with ~60 pip risk.

small position as I am testing the theory, but if new trend does appear I will pounce upon its waves. The size of the trade is 1/10th of what I usually trade, and I am still profitable for the month even if I am stopped.