The Market.

He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious. -SUN TZU.

Learned more tonight than I have in the past month. Several things became clear all at once. Market Sentiment, Price action, and market timing.

Watch what the market is doing, and then trade the secondary movement. Pros assess risk, Amateurs assess potential. This is true. The secondary movement always has less risk than the initial movement, greed takes over the amateurs trading and makes them swing for the fences trying to hit the ball as far as they can. If the general market is down NOW, then you will look for signals of slowing in an over extended market, and then trade the pullback. Now if the price goes against you, and the market is trying to stop hunt/shake off the short's (in a bear market for example) then you would add once that movement begins to slow and show signs of taking back into the short.