Was admitted to Carleton University for Quantitative and Mathematical Economics for September!
Only took 3 years to get in...
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Friday, July 8, 2011
Short USA conviction
I added a few more otm SHY options the other day (remind me to rant about the execution given to me by my broker...market was 0.10/0.15, market filled me at 0.15 then dropped to 0.05/0.10)...ANYWHO
I am now convicted that the USA will indeed default on their short term loans. If not default, they will create a QE3 which will roll their short term debt into long term debt, essentially doing the same thing that Greece is doing (except Moody's doesn't threaten to lower US debt for the rollovers). BUT by rolling their debt, people will begin to demand more interest for short term loans because of the risk of default on the ever growing debt crisis that the USA has yet to resolve. This higher interest idea came to me after how poorly the 2y auctions have been doing. People clearly do not want to buy bonds at this low of a rate anymore, if nobody is there to buy, the rate will go down until someone starts buying.
Obama reported he wanted to cut 20billion a year over the next decade...even by rolling your debts into longer term debts, your still paying interest, and that debt is going to grow exponentially.
Realistically, If shy drops 3% I will be a happy person (81.00). Lower than that I would be ecstatic.
I am now convicted that the USA will indeed default on their short term loans. If not default, they will create a QE3 which will roll their short term debt into long term debt, essentially doing the same thing that Greece is doing (except Moody's doesn't threaten to lower US debt for the rollovers). BUT by rolling their debt, people will begin to demand more interest for short term loans because of the risk of default on the ever growing debt crisis that the USA has yet to resolve. This higher interest idea came to me after how poorly the 2y auctions have been doing. People clearly do not want to buy bonds at this low of a rate anymore, if nobody is there to buy, the rate will go down until someone starts buying.
Obama reported he wanted to cut 20billion a year over the next decade...even by rolling your debts into longer term debts, your still paying interest, and that debt is going to grow exponentially.
Realistically, If shy drops 3% I will be a happy person (81.00). Lower than that I would be ecstatic.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
US short terms and greek bonds
So noticed that everyone had been buying treasuries and the yield went to 0.37. Thinking that the US debt ceiling (if raised) will greatly increase supply, but not demand, I bought a put on SHY (1-3 year short term us treasury etf) @ 85.00 for 0.93.
If US defaults, I break the bank, if they raise the ceiling, i make a little.
Also been looking at greek bonds...the combined rollover bond is 53.xx, 54.xx now. I want to buy this but cannot through my broker. Cannot even find an etf on it...
If US defaults, I break the bank, if they raise the ceiling, i make a little.
Also been looking at greek bonds...the combined rollover bond is 53.xx, 54.xx now. I want to buy this but cannot through my broker. Cannot even find an etf on it...
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Stress
So basically on my last hail Mary for getting into school for September and think I may have to actually sit and think of a fallback plan.
I have been at Carleton for almost as long as an Undergraduate program, yet they still will not let me into full time studies.
Make or break time is here, I am teetering on the pass/fail grade of my German course (pass is 63%), and I have started buckling down for the last 2 weeks in hopes I can somehow get an extra 10% boost.
NEEDLESS to say I am stressed for a bunch of things, but work looks like it is picking up now, so at least money wont be one of my major concerns right now.
Anywho, just a short rant today. Time for bed.
ps. I really need to work on the grammar and structure of these late night rants.
I have been at Carleton for almost as long as an Undergraduate program, yet they still will not let me into full time studies.
Make or break time is here, I am teetering on the pass/fail grade of my German course (pass is 63%), and I have started buckling down for the last 2 weeks in hopes I can somehow get an extra 10% boost.
NEEDLESS to say I am stressed for a bunch of things, but work looks like it is picking up now, so at least money wont be one of my major concerns right now.
Anywho, just a short rant today. Time for bed.
ps. I really need to work on the grammar and structure of these late night rants.
Monday, May 16, 2011
US DEBT CRISIS
ok, why am I posting this at 1245am? good question, I dont know the answer but apparently it helps me sleep.
SOOO
WSJ reported US hit its debt ceiling today or tomorrow, meaning 11weeks till they default on their debts.
That means crazy amounts of politics in coming weeks, basis being raising the us debt levels so that they can use debt to pay off debt until the market can support restructuring of their debt (or a mass weakening of the USD)
I want to be short as much usd as possible right now, expecting volatility to skyrocket in coming weeks.
anywho...SLEEP!
have to be up in 5 hours for german...
SOOO
WSJ reported US hit its debt ceiling today or tomorrow, meaning 11weeks till they default on their debts.
That means crazy amounts of politics in coming weeks, basis being raising the us debt levels so that they can use debt to pay off debt until the market can support restructuring of their debt (or a mass weakening of the USD)
I want to be short as much usd as possible right now, expecting volatility to skyrocket in coming weeks.
anywho...SLEEP!
have to be up in 5 hours for german...
Friday, May 13, 2011
back to the basics
Every once in a while its good to go back and work on the true basics of our trade.
Also have started coming to various conclusions. Mainly, I am noticing that making things complicated only works when you have the means todo so. Also, I have come to the conclusion that speculation never changes. The reason people like Jesse Livermore, and Rollo Tape live on is because they were the ones that said it as it is. Trading isn't about the indicators, the mathematics, the ratios, it's about the gut instinct. When this is moving, what is going to happen to this. The whole premise of money flow within a market. Mainly in currencies, one cross cannot get stronger without one or the other moving as they have the same base currency. If usd is weakening, it must be weakening across the board but at different rates. So you essentially are using that idea to create a gut instinct that if fufilled will create profits.
"In a gold rush, if you have no gold, then you can sell shovels"
Also have started coming to various conclusions. Mainly, I am noticing that making things complicated only works when you have the means todo so. Also, I have come to the conclusion that speculation never changes. The reason people like Jesse Livermore, and Rollo Tape live on is because they were the ones that said it as it is. Trading isn't about the indicators, the mathematics, the ratios, it's about the gut instinct. When this is moving, what is going to happen to this. The whole premise of money flow within a market. Mainly in currencies, one cross cannot get stronger without one or the other moving as they have the same base currency. If usd is weakening, it must be weakening across the board but at different rates. So you essentially are using that idea to create a gut instinct that if fufilled will create profits.
"In a gold rush, if you have no gold, then you can sell shovels"
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Citi Flash Crash?
Wondering if Citi will be a potential target when they complete their 1:10 R/S...
I.E. price from 4x.xx to 4.xx and back...
I.E. price from 4x.xx to 4.xx and back...
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