updates

started regulating my trade sizing.

currently long cable 1.5176 at my max position of 30% utilization of leverage (1.8million long).

movements from 1.5335 area to 1.5125 area show a retracement range of 1.5230-1.5250.
Price is sitting at 1.5182.
Daily pivot is 1.5205 on my chart.

this means that if we break that pivot I should plan on taking some profits around 1.5230, leaving a runner, and possibly adding around 1.52 on the retrace...that way if 1.52 breaks, I will have taken profits and could then look for next opportunity.


-P.

recent events

School Application was sent off.

MASSIVE Heatwave in Ottawa, really regretting moving into an apartment without Air conditioning.

Cut out from my standard 6 pairs to focus on one pair. Back to the basics.


Also working on Integration from some random Calculus book I picked up at Chapters.


tis all for now.

Listening

funny that when someone tells you something, you take it with a grain of sand until you understand it.

I have been patient, waiting for trades to develop and have been trying to scale in with great results.

started the week with ~73 000 in alpari currenex demo, currently sitting at ~98 000. high water mark is like 110 000 i believe, so still a lot of work to do.

update sunday night

euro sits at 1.295, thats +0.035, and cable sits at basically 1.488 (+0.002).

thats +350 and +20.

Greek debt crisis

So a bunch of greeks went around and cheated the system, pulling their debts off of their balance sheets using swap derivatives. Trichet is giving them abour 150 billion so they will not default. The greek people are striking. They are caught in a catch 22. If they leave the EU they are fucked, if they stay they are fucked.

Anywho,

Majority of the markets are imploding from this. I see this as a chance to test the reflexivity of the markets. As cds's and most markets collapse, one question comes to my head.

Is this really that bad?

We can look at the US bailout, the Russian default of 1998 that crippled ltcm, and the bullrun of 2009.

Fundamentally I am thinking that this is just one of those moments blown out of preportion, and traders with a straight head can make a killing cutting through the bullshit and make serious money.

As I write this the dow is 10630, down 237.76, down 2.19%, euro is 1.26, down 10% in the past month, usdjpy is 90.18, and cable is 1.49.

Interesting would be testing my theory of the equlibrium between similar based currency pairs.

So let's create a paper portfolio. 1 000 000 dollars.

25% equities, remainder fx.

Long dow 10630 for $106300
Short cable 1.49 for 100 000 cable making 149 000 usd.
Long euro for 149 000 usd, or 118 253.97 euro @ 1.26.

100:1 margin for the fx trades:
So that's 1000 for gbp, 1490 for euro.

And no leverage for equity trades,
So total margin is
108 790 for the portfolio. Will start to update this every day to test it out.

death of the euro

Ok so I have an idea,

if you can profit when company a merges with company b via risk arbitrage, can the same not be done with currencies?

Profiting from the breakup of currencies?

Cahones and Traders Gut

ok so have a common problem with my trades, and I need to rectify it (somehow haven't rectified it in the past two years)

I have been giving my trades room to breathe, but find that once I add-on to the original trade, I start to think I am wrong all the time.

Most recently I was long cable avg. 1.529x for 20 lots. I had the original idea based on my technical system, that 1.5230 would be my exit. Not following my system, I got out in the 70s, for a substantial loss. Had I gone to bed, I would have made ~17% on the trade, with the low being 1.5265...

I need to calculate a position sizing strategy.