[11:19:52 AM] Patrick May says: s euro @ 1.42243
[11:20:23 AM] Patrick May says: s dllryen 93.734
[11:23:37 AM] Patrick May says: and s eyen @ 133.324
[11:25:39 AM] Patrick May says: took +11.2 on eyen
[11:27:13 AM] Patrick May says: +6.5 on euro
[11:30:15 AM] Patrick May says: i know i got out early, but as I am taking small positions I cannot scale them....as dow is at critical level imo, took profits when i had them, holding dllryen to see if dow continues to drop now
[11:34:12 AM] Patrick May says: flat -7.1


so profits:

S Eyen: 11.2
S Euro: 6.5
S dllryen: -7.1


total: 10.6

daily profits: 80.3. 100.75% above daily target.

July 22nd, euro session...i hate mornings...

[3:01:48 AM] Patrick May says: s euro 1.41964
[3:02:41 AM] Patrick May says: took +7.3 on dllryen
[3:06:15 AM] Patrick May says: s dllryen 93.701, eyen 132.962
[3:08:00 AM] Patrick May says: watch dllryen will start to fade, euro will retrace a bit, then we will drop like a rock
[3:13:39 AM] Patrick May says: 1.4150 area would be nice
[3:14:04 AM] Patrick May says: dllryen is the one stalling the show
[3:16:34 AM] Patrick May says: would reduce euro here @ 1.4179-80 area...but too small position on mt4 account
[3:25:14 AM] Patrick May says: flat eyen @ 649 +31.x
[3:25:51 AM] Patrick May says: flat euro 1.41741 +22 i believe
[3:26:10 AM] Patrick May says: +9.3 dllryen
[3:26:17 AM] Patrick May says: @ 93.611


so I was:
Long dllryen: +7.3
Short Dllryen: +9.0
Short Eyen: +31.1
Short Euro: +22.3

Total nights gain: 69.7 pips

beat my target by 74% tonight.

[2:42:28 AM] Patrick May says: logic saying that dllryen should also begin to create nHigh as equities rise
[2:42:54 AM] Patrick May says: but...if its slowing could also mean that its fake move OR that dllryen hasnt caught up yet


Now what I am looking for is a strong euro session, this SHOULD create a stronger dllryen.

problems:

Euro very over-extended. This could cause dllryen to drop significantly more as yen begins to be bought.


took dllryen long 93.648

[2:48:41 PM] Patrick May says: might be interesting time to sell dllryen...people taking profits before weekend



usually prices trend towards the close as people take profits.

Dllryen was about 94.30 when I wrote that, it is now slowly dropping 94.2x area. Dow also looks to be preparing to sell off 8732 area.

Trades

[7/13/2009 10:57:44 PM] Patrick May says: long euro on a theory
[7/13/2009 10:57:55 PM] Patrick May says: nikkei is strong, dllryen reversing, could see euro run up now
[7/13/2009 11:15:05 PM] Patrick May says: now what is more interesting is going to be nikkei post lunch, if we gap up, we will see euro run, and yen sell off...
[12:11:18 AM] Patrick May says: need to see nikkei higher for euro to breakout
[12:44:10 AM] Patrick May says: flat +16.8 @@ 1.39805
[1:00:45 AM] Patrick May says: nikkei was retracing, and although yen is down, I dont euro will run up for a couple hours.

I am starting to post my trade ideology as I go because I need to see the errors in my thought process. This will help me improve my position taking and allow me to correct wrongful thinking.

Money Flow Theory

Theory:

Pairs Traded:
Euro
Eyen
Dllryen

Situation:

Euro 4h is Overextended to the downside, and 30m is consolidated but near upper key level.

Action:
As you want to buy Euro and sell Usd, you begin to check what pairs are doing what. You start with Dllryen. If the Usd is losing strength, then Dllryen will initially drop based on Euro going higher (selling of USD). Note the lower key level of Dllryen as if it breaks it will trigger a drop in Euro. Also the Lower key level is a good place to set a bid order.

You next look at Eyen to see whether or not Euro is infulencing the Yen selloff. As Eyen is getting dragged higher by Euro, Dllryen will follow as the Yen begins to selloff. Hence why it is a good idea to place a bid by lower key Dllryen level. Note upper and lower key levels of Eyen as it can spark Yen to drag down Dllryen and Euro, giving the Usd strength.

Trading Plan

Been working at putting my trading strategy onto paper for the past week, this is what has been done so far.



The Basis of my trading strategy is trading the equilibrium point of price waves (Fractals). Fractals are created within a trend as investors and traders take profits (or losses) which causes the price to trend in waves. As the main goal for any trader is to cut risk and create consistent profits with minimal losses I ignore trying to catch the beginning of a trend. The beginning of a trend although more profitable when you are right is very risky. This is why I wait until the first fractal has been made before entering a trade. this ensures that I am with the market sentiment and not against it. To further help this, I took notes from a Long time trader.

"When Price advances, think sell, this will stop you from buying at the top. You won't enter a short either because that would void the bias. Enter the market long at the bottom of a replacement."

So we have gone over 2 big parts of trading so far. A: Trends occur when market sentiment changes, and B: As buyers and sellers create transactions, it causes waves in price action.

Now As markets are never truly the same day after day, it is important to have a strategy that is quickly adjustable to the current market situation. I personally feel that this ideology keeps your mind focused on what is actually happening and filtering all of the noise out.

Next post will be on Fundamental screening and planning the day ahead.